“一带一路”下OFDI的产业升级效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-05 00:07

本文关键词：“一带一路”下OFDI的产业升级效应研究　出处：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：目前,中国经济增速逐步放缓,经济发展进入新常态,中国制造业一方面面临劳动力等生产成本的上涨,另一方面面临产能过剩的困境。中国经济亟需转移国内的过剩产能,实现经济结构的转型与升级。自从"一带一路"提出以来,我国对"一带一路"沿线国家的OFDI增长迅速,对外直接投资已经成为中国企业参与"一带一路"和进行国际产能合作的重要形式。提出"一带一路"战略已三年有余,"一带一路"是否对中国经济产生了影响?在"一带一路"下"走出去"的中国资本会如何推动中国的产业升级?这些问题都亟需研究。本先文从理论层面分析了"一带一路"下OFDI促进中国产业升级的影响路径,即边际产业转移效应和逆向技术溢出效应。本文随后在理论模型中用全要素生产率的变化来刻画逆向技术溢出效应,用折旧率的变化来刻画边际产业转移效应,并对"一带一路"实施前后产业升级的速度进行了比较静态分析。模型推导发现,"一带一路"下OFDI会通过边际产业转移效应和逆向技术溢出效应推动中国的产业升级。同时,本文基于2011-2015年137家参与"一带一路"的上市公司的面板数据,利用倾向得分匹配(PSM)和倍差法(DID)研究了"一带一路"下的OFDI对中国产业升级的影响,同时还分地区、分所有制对数据进行了研究。主要实证结论如下:(1)"一带一路"下的0FDI对中国产业升级有显著的正向作用,能够提高企业的劳动生产率,促进产业结构优化。(2)"一带一路"下各地区的对外直接投资对产业升级的推动作用存在差异,存在"东部强于中西部"的现象,但无法识别中西部哪个地区"一带一路"下OFDI的产业升级效应更强。(3)"一带一路"下不同所有制企业的对外直接投资对产业升级的推动作用存在差异,存在"民营企业强于公有制企业、外资企业不显著"的现象。本文最后还根据模型结论和实证结果给出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:At present, China's economic growth is gradually slowing, economic development has entered a new normal, China's manufacturing industry on the one hand faces rising production costs such as labor. On the other hand, it faces the dilemma of overcapacity. China's economy urgently needs to transfer its domestic excess capacity to realize the transformation and upgrading of its economic structure. China's OFDI to countries along "Belt and Road" is growing rapidly. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has become an important form for Chinese enterprises to participate in "Belt and Road" and carry out international capacity cooperation. It has been more than three years since the "Belt and Road" strategy was put forward. Has Belt and Road had an impact on China's economy? How will Chinese capital "go out" under "Belt and Road" promote China's industrial upgrading? All these problems need to be studied. This paper analyzes the influence path of OFDI to promote China's industrial upgrading under "Belt and Road" from the theoretical level. This paper uses the change of total factor productivity to describe the reverse technology spillover effect in the theoretical model and the marginal industrial transfer effect with the change of depreciation rate. And the "Belt and Road" before and after the implementation of the industrial upgrading of the speed of comparative static analysis. Model derivation found. Under "Belt and Road", OFDI will promote China's industrial upgrading through marginal industrial transfer effect and reverse technology spillover effect. This paper is based on panel data of 137 listed companies involved in Belt and Road from 2011 to 2015. The influence of OFDI under "Belt and Road" on China's industrial upgrading is studied by using the propensity score matching (PSM) and the double difference method (DIDD). At the same time, it is divided into regions. The main empirical conclusions are as follows: (1) "Belt and Road" has a significant positive effect on China's industrial upgrading, and can improve the labor productivity of enterprises. Promote the optimization of industrial structure. 2) under "Belt and Road", there are differences in the role of foreign direct investment to promote industrial upgrading in different regions, and there is a phenomenon that "the east is stronger than the central and western regions". However, it is impossible to identify which region in the Midwest, "Belt and Road", has a stronger industrial upgrading effect under "Belt and Road".). Under "Belt and Road", there are differences in the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) of different ownership enterprises in promoting industrial upgrading. There is a phenomenon that "private enterprises are stronger than public enterprises, but foreign-funded enterprises are not significant". Finally, the policy suggestions are given according to the conclusions of the model and the empirical results.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6;F121.3

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