金融自由化与国际资本流入大进、急停关系研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 00:35

本文关键词：金融自由化与国际资本流入大进、急停关系研究　出处：《南方金融》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文从理论上探讨金融自由化对国际资本流入大进、急停的影响,以20个发达国家和29个新兴市场国家为样本,对国际资本流入大进和急停事件进行鉴别和统计分析,在此基础上运用非平衡面板模型量化测度金融自由化对国际资本流入大进、急停的影响。理论研究表明:金融自由化是否对国际资本流入大进、急停产生显著影响,主要取决于金融自由化过程中本国产出水平的升降幅度。如果金融自由化导致本国产出水平大幅下降,则发生国际资本流入急停的概率较大。如果金融自由化能够大幅提高国内产出水平,则发生国际资本流入大进的概率较大。实证研究表明:新兴市场国家的金融自由化会显著增加国际资本总流入大进以及其他投资项下资本流入大进的概率;但对于发达国家来说,金融自由化对其国际资本总流入的极端波动没有显著影响,却会降低其证券投资项下资本流入发生大进的概率。当前,我国经济增速的下行压力较大,为此,推进人民币资本项目开放要注意把控节奏、循序渐进,同时要强化对国内金融机构和企业跨境资本流动的监测预警和风险抵御能力评估,防止跨境资本流动大进大出对经济产生较大冲击。
[Abstract]:This paper theoretically discusses the impact of financial liberalization on international capital inflow, taking 20 developed countries and 29 emerging market countries as samples. On the basis of the identification and statistical analysis of the international capital inflow and the sudden stoppage events, the non-equilibrium panel model is used to quantify the financial liberalization to measure the international capital inflow. Theoretical study shows whether financial liberalization has a significant impact on international capital inflow. It mainly depends on the rise and fall of domestic output level in the process of financial liberalization. The probability of a sudden stoppage of international capital inflows is greater. If financial liberalization can significantly increase domestic output levels. Empirical research shows that financial liberalization in emerging market countries will significantly increase the probability of international total capital inflow and other investment. However, for developed countries, financial liberalization has no significant impact on the extreme volatility of their total international capital inflows, but will reduce the probability of capital inflows making great progress under their portfolio investment. The downward pressure on China's economic growth rate is great. Therefore, to push forward the opening of RMB capital account, we should pay attention to controlling the rhythm and step by step. At the same time, it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and warning of cross-border capital flows of domestic financial institutions and enterprises and the assessment of their ability to resist risks, so as to prevent cross-border capital flows from making a big impact on the economy.
【作者单位】：中国科学院大学;中国华融资产管理股份有限公司;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目《新时期国际资本流动特征及我国跨境资本流动风险预警》(项目编号:71273257);国家自然科学基金重点项目《大数据环境下金融风险传导与防范研究》(项目编号:71532013)的资助
【分类号】：F831
【正文快照】： 一、引言过去30多年来,许多国家为了吸引外资流入,加速本国经济发展,采取金融自由化政策。金融自由化可以将金融资源引导到效率最高的地方,促进全球资源的有效配置,从而提高全球经济增长和福利水平。但与此同时,随着金融自由化程度的提高,国际资本流动的波动幅度也在显著扩

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