住房公积金、城市定居与生育意愿——基于流动人口的调查分析

发布时间：2018-01-06 15:05

本文关键词：住房公积金、城市定居与生育意愿——基于流动人口的调查分析　出处：《华东理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2017年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：住房公积金与城市定居作为影响家庭资源配置的重要因素,对流动人口生育意愿产生了重要影响。本文基于2013年中国七城市的调查数据,利用Logit模型与泊松回归模型,将城市定居分为定居意愿与城市购房两个维度,分析了住房公积金与城市定居对流动人口生育意愿的影响。研究发现,住房公积金与城市定居对流动人口生育意愿产生两种相反的效应:挤入效应和挤出效应,前者不仅提高了流动人口选择生育的概率,而且增加了流动人口生育子女的数量;后者在降低流动人口选择生育概率的同时,减少了流动人口生育子女的数量。此外,通过对住房公积金与城市定居意愿的交互分析发现,住房公积金弱化了城市定居意愿对流动人口生育意愿的挤出效应;但住房公积金与城市购房的交互作用只存在丈夫模型中,即住房公积金缓解了城市购房对丈夫生育子女数量的负向作用。结合研究得出的观点与结论,文章最后探讨了相关的政策启示。
[Abstract]:Housing provident fund and urban settlement, as the important factors affecting the allocation of family resources, have an important impact on the fertility willingness of the floating population. This paper is based on the survey data of seven cities in China in 2013. By using Logit model and Poisson regression model, the urban settlement is divided into two dimensions: settlement intention and urban house purchase, and the effects of housing accumulation fund and urban settlement on floating population's fertility willingness are analyzed. Housing provident fund and urban settlement have two opposite effects on floating population's fertility intention: crowding in effect and crowding out effect. The former not only improves the probability of floating population's choice of fertility. Moreover, the number of children born to the floating population has been increased; The latter reduces the probability of floating population to choose to have children, at the same time, it reduces the number of floating population to have children. In addition, through the interactive analysis of housing accumulation fund and the willingness to settle down in the city. The housing accumulation fund weakens the crowding out effect of the urban settlement intention on the floating population's desire to have children; However, the interaction between housing accumulation fund and urban housing purchase only exists in the husband model, that is, housing provident fund alleviates the negative effect of urban housing purchase on husband's number of children. Finally, the article discusses the relevant policy implications.
【作者单位】：武汉大学社会保障研究中心;
【分类号】：C924.21;F299.23;F832.479
【正文快照】： 一、研究背景随着工业化和新型城镇化的快速发展,我国流动人口规模急剧扩大,根据国家卫计委2015年公布的《中国流动人口发展报告(2015)》数据显示,2014年流动人口约为2.53亿人,占全国总人口的五分之一。(1)流动人口的主力军是青壮年人群,大多处于人口再生产的旺盛期。(2)因此,

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