贷款利率市场化对农村正规与非正规金融关系的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-06 22:00

本文关键词：贷款利率市场化对农村正规与非正规金融关系的影响研究　出处：《浙江理工大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近些年来随着新型农村金融机构的迅速兴起,农村利率市场化改革进程也在不断加速,在不断扩大贷款利率浮动区间的基础上,2013年7月更是实现了贷款利率的全面市场化,从而迈出了农村金融发展具有历史意义的一步。而在大多数发展中国家,农村信贷市场主要由正规金融部门与非正规金融部门构成的。这两个部门长久以来一直存在着强烈竞争、合作互补关系,且政府常出台政策为打压非正规金融在农村的地位,但其效果都不显著,甚至有些政策反而有助于非正规金融发展。作为极为重要的外生冲击,农村正规金融贷款利率的完全市场化对于正规金融与非正规金融的影响是全方位的。本文是在已有文献研究的基础上,以近十年来中国的经济现实出发,探讨贷款利率市场化对农村正规与非正规金融影响的机制与效应。首先深入归纳、提炼与创新以不完全信息为基础的现代农村正规与非正规金融机构的互动机制理论,研究的理论框架中考察了以前学者不曾考虑的技术内生效应,将在一定程度上更合理地展现贷款利率市场化的推进过程。进而对从数据中挖掘出近十年来正规与非正规金融发展的基本事实,并利用计量模型科学的验证贷款利率市场化所导致的正规金融对非正规金融的替代效应和替代机制,最后探讨了农村金融市场本身的完善程度是否比贷款利率市场化对农村金融结构的影响更显著。通过理论框架分析与计量实证研究,本文得出的结论如下:(1)中国贷款利率市场化可分为利率增长快速期、利率波动变化期与利率回落稳定期三个阶段,在三个阶段中贷款利率市场化对正规与非正规金融发展都有极大的影响,且有一定的差异性;(2)在渐进利率市场化过程中,本文创新性提出正规金融与非正规金融的关系是名义收益效应、借款人类型恶化效应与技术内生效应三种效应的迭加。在三种效应的共同作用下,正规金融对非正规金融的替代效应呈倒U型变化特征,亦可分为三大阶段;(3)在研究贷款利率市场化对正规金融与非正规金融的关系影响问题中,本文发现信息不对称是比利率市场化更能影响农村金融结构的因素。根据研究结论,得出了相应的经济政策含义:(1)适度调控放贷利率,在对贷款利率走势有所估计的情况下利用贷款利率风险报警系统调控利率;(2)严格把控借贷时限,对借贷农民综合评价后再给出金融机构可接受的借贷期限;(3)重视金融市场的完善程度,运用好当代大数据技术使征信数据标准化,以数据融合来连接各地的信息。由于受限于笔者的知识储备与可获取的数据样本,本文在最后点出了不足之处。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the rapid rise of new rural financial institutions, the process of market-oriented reform of rural interest rates is also accelerating, on the basis of expanding the floating range of loan interest rates. In July 2013, the overall marketization of loan interest rates was realized, thus taking a historic step forward in the development of rural finance, while in most developing countries. The rural credit market is mainly composed of the formal financial sector and the informal financial sector, the two sectors have been strong competition for a long time, cooperation and complementarity. And the government often issued policies to suppress the status of informal finance in rural areas, but its effect is not significant, even some policies help the development of informal finance. As an extremely important exogenous impact. The full marketization of the interest rate of rural formal finance loan has a comprehensive impact on formal finance and informal finance. This paper is based on the existing literature on the basis of the recent ten years of economic reality in China. This paper discusses the mechanism and effect of marketization of loan interest rate on rural formal and informal finance. Abstract and innovate the interactive mechanism theory of modern rural formal and informal financial institutions based on incomplete information. In the theoretical framework of the study, we examine the endogenous effects of technology that scholars have not considered before. To a certain extent, it will show the advance process of marketization of loan interest rate, and then dig out the basic facts of the development of formal and informal finance in the past ten years from the data. And the econometric model is used to verify the substitution effect and mechanism of the formal finance to the informal finance caused by the marketization of loan interest rate. Finally, it discusses whether the perfection of the rural financial market itself is more significant than the marketization of loan interest rate on the rural financial structure. Through theoretical framework analysis and econometric empirical research. The conclusion of this paper is as follows: (1) the marketization of interest rate in China can be divided into three stages: the period of rapid interest rate growth, the period of interest rate fluctuation and the period of interest rate falling and stabilizing. In the three stages, the marketization of loan interest rate has a great influence on the development of both formal and informal finance, and there are some differences; 2) in the process of gradual interest rate marketization, this paper innovatively proposes that the relationship between formal finance and informal finance is the effect of nominal income. Under the combined effect of the three effects, the substitution effect of formal finance to informal finance has the characteristics of inverted U-shaped change, and can also be divided into three stages; 3) in the study of the influence of marketization of loan interest rate on the relationship between formal finance and informal finance, this paper finds that asymmetric information is a more effective factor affecting rural financial structure than the marketization of interest rate. Get the corresponding economic policy meaning: 1) adjust and control the lending interest rate moderately, and adjust the interest rate by using the loan interest rate risk alarm system under the condition of estimating the trend of the loan interest rate; (2) strictly control the time limit of lending and lending, and then give the loan period acceptable to the financial institutions after comprehensive evaluation of the loan farmers; 3) attach importance to the perfection of the financial market, make use of the modern big data technology to standardize the credit information and connect the information in different places with the data fusion, because of the limitation of the author's knowledge reserve and the available data sample. At the end of this paper, the shortcomings are pointed out.
【学位授予单位】：浙江理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.35;F832.5

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