时变视角下非正规借贷利率的货币政策反应研究

发布时间：2018-01-07 13:31

本文关键词：时变视角下非正规借贷利率的货币政策反应研究　出处：《金融研究》2017年10期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文从时变视角研究了非正规借贷利率的货币政策反应,试图为二元金融结构下的货币政策选择提供参考。基于修正的IS-IM模型的研究表明,非正规借贷利率的货币政策反应受正规与非正规金融市场间的替代性等因素的影响。实证结果显示,非正规借贷利率的货币政策反应具有明显的时变特征,表现在价格型货币政策工具在短期能够有效引导非正规借贷利率走势,但长期来看政策效果有所弱化;数量型货币政策工具在2008年国际金融危机前期出现暂时"失灵",但在后金融危机时期政策效果有明显改善。正规与非正规金融市场间替代性的动态演化能够为以上结论提供合理解释。本文研究还发现,正规与非正规金融市场利率间存在时变的同向变动关系,前者对后者的影响随滞后期数增加而衰减。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the monetary policy response of informal lending interest rate from the perspective of time-varying, and tries to provide a reference for the choice of monetary policy under the dualistic financial structure. The study based on the modified IS-IM model shows that. The monetary policy response of informal lending rate is influenced by the substitution between formal and informal financial markets. The empirical results show that the monetary policy response of informal lending rate has obvious time-varying characteristics. In the short term, the price-based monetary policy tools can effectively guide the trend of informal lending interest rate, but in the long run, the policy effect is weakened; In 2008, the quantitative monetary policy instrument appeared temporary "failure" in the early stage of the international financial crisis. But in the post-financial crisis, the effect of policy has improved significantly. The alternative dynamic evolution between formal and informal financial markets can provide a reasonable explanation for the above conclusions. There is a time-varying codirectional relationship between the interest rates in the formal and informal financial markets, and the influence of the former on the latter decreases with the increase of the lag number.
【作者单位】：宁波大学商学院;中国人民银行杭州中心支行;温州大学金融研究院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目《创新与完善我国民间金融监管协调机制研究》(14ZDA045)资助宁波大学人文社会科学培育项目研究成果南湖互联网金融学院提供了数据调研协助
【分类号】：F822.0
【正文快照】： 一、引言本文从时变视角研究非正规借贷利率的货币政策反应,试图为厘清二元金融结构下货币政策的有效性问题提供经验证据,为二元金融结构下的货币政策选择提供参考。现有文献已对银行信贷的货币政策反应进行了较多研究,但是却鲜有文献从非正规借贷角度研究货币政策的实施效

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