汇率对中等收入国家经济跨越的影响研究

发布时间：2018-01-10 06:08

本文关键词：汇率对中等收入国家经济跨越的影响研究　出处：《金融研究》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：汇率稳定对经济增长的宏观影响这一问题并未引起主流经济学的足够关注。中等收入国家处在国际经济体系外围、经济开放程度高、汇率与物价双向作用明显,汇率不稳定对实际经济增长的负面影响更显著。本文梳理全球1980年以来中等收入阶段国家汇率制度选择和经济跨越表现的有关事实,建立分解框架解构汇率在经济跨越中的作用,基于面板向量自回归模型量化分析汇率和通胀的双向传递效应,构造汇率稳定指标对汇率波动和实际经济增长之间的关系进行实证检验,揭示汇率不稳定对经济跨越的影响,对中等收入国家汇率稳定和管理提出政策建议。
[Abstract]:The macroeconomic impact of exchange rate stability on economic growth has not attracted enough attention from mainstream economics. Middle-income countries are in the periphery of the international economic system, with a high degree of economic openness, and the two-way effect of exchange rate and price is obvious. Exchange rate instability has a more significant negative impact on real economic growth. This paper reviews the relevant facts of the choice of exchange rate regime and economic leapfrogging performance of middle-income countries since 1980. A decomposition framework is established to deconstruct the role of exchange rate in economic leapfrogging. Based on the panel vector autoregressive model, the bidirectional transfer effect between exchange rate and inflation is analyzed quantitatively. An empirical test is made on the relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and real economic growth by constructing exchange rate stability index, which reveals the influence of exchange rate instability on economic leapfrogging, and puts forward some policy suggestions for the exchange rate stability and management of middle-income countries.
【作者单位】：对外经济贸易大学;兰州财经大学;
【基金】：教育部人文社科研究基地重大项目(14JJD790023) 国家社科基金重大项目(15ZDA030)的资助
【分类号】：F31;;F33;;F43
【正文快照】： 一、引言经济增长问题是经济学永恒的主题。世界银行引入中等收入陷阱概念,旨在强调一国经济发展进入中等收入阶段后,所依靠的经济增长机制与之前有所不同,与高收入国家也不同,呼吁研究并应用更有效的促进增长框架。在这个框架中汇率的作用不应当被忽视。历史经验表明,汇率

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