多种货币结算制度下津巴布韦通货膨胀率的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-01-11 15:27

  本文关键词：多种货币结算制度下津巴布韦通货膨胀率的影响因素研究　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

  更多相关文章： 多货币结算制度 通货膨胀 津巴布韦

【摘要】：津巴布韦曾于2007-2008年间经历了严重的恶性通货膨胀,最高时期单月通货膨胀率高达200,000%。之后自2008年8月起,津巴布韦央行进行了货币制度改革,包括废除旧津巴布韦元的使用,以及启动多种货币结算制度:其中包括美元、南非兰特、欧元、人民币、和博茨瓦纳货币普拉等成为了其日常的主要结算货币。货币制度改革后,津巴布韦宏观经济有所好转,物价趋于稳定,但仍存在一定的通货膨胀现象,年化通胀率在3%左右。本文基于2009-2015年津巴布韦的月度数据,建立了协整模型讨论多种货币结算制度下津巴布韦通货膨胀率的影响因素,以期为其政府相关部门特别是央行的货币政策提供政策参考。我们的协整模型表明,货币供应总量,汇率,利率和进口量是货币体制改革后津巴布韦通货膨胀率的主要影响因素。鉴于其中汇率是典型的外生变量,与津巴布韦相关货币政策的走向无关,我们建议津巴布韦央行应主要关注其他三个变量。特别的,在美元升值时,津巴布韦央行宜尽量控制进口商品数量,以避免通胀风险;而美元贬值时,津巴布韦政府宜通过影响利率而避免通缩风险。综合考虑,从长期物价稳定的角度来看,津巴布韦央行仍需选择适当时机,退出多货币结算体制,并重新印发本国货币,从而可以通过灵活调整货币供应总量稳定物价。
[Abstract]:Zimbabwe experienced severe hyperinflation in 2007-2008, with a monthly high of 200, 000 per month at its peak. Since August 2008, Zimbabwe has experienced severe hyperinflation. Zimbabwe's central bank has reformed its monetary system, including abolishing the use of the old Zimbabwean dollar and launching a multi-currency settlement system, including the dollar, the South African rand, the euro and the renminbi. After the reform of monetary system, the macro-economy of Zimbabwe has improved, prices tend to stabilize, but there is still a certain inflation phenomenon. The annualized inflation rate is about 3%. Based on the monthly data of Zimbabwe from 2009 to 2015, a cointegration model is established to discuss the influencing factors of Zimbabwe's inflation rate under various currency settlement systems. In order to provide policy reference for the relevant government departments, especially the central bank monetary policy. Our cointegration model shows that the total amount of money supply, exchange rate. Interest rate and import volume are the main influencing factors of Zimbabwe's inflation rate after the reform of monetary system. Since the exchange rate is a typical exogenous variable, it has nothing to do with the trend of Zimbabwe's monetary policy. We suggest that Zimbabwe's central bank should focus on the other three variables. In particular, when the dollar is rising, Zimbabwe's central bank should try to control the number of imports to avoid inflation risks. When the dollar depreciates, the Zimbabwean government should avoid the risk of deflation by influencing interest rates. Considering the long-term price stability, Zimbabwe's central bank still needs to choose the right time. By withdrawing from the multi-currency settlement system and reissuing the local currency, the price can be stabilized by flexible adjustment of the total amount of money supply.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.5
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本文编号：1410124