货币政策对地方债发行的影响机制

发布时间：2018-01-13 11:50

本文关键词：货币政策对地方债发行的影响机制　出处：《上海金融》2017年08期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文就我国货币政策对地方债发行的影响机制进行了研究,基于货币政策的债券市场传导机制,归纳出货币政策影响地方债发行的5个渠道:流动性渠道、通货膨胀预期渠道、风险渠道、信号渠道和期限结构渠道。实证上,本文利用我国247个地级市的城投债数据分析表明,一是货币政策紧缩明显降低了地方政府是否发债的概率、发债的只数和发债的规模,货币政策对地方政府发债行为的影响以流动性渠道和风险渠道影响为主。二是货币政策紧缩明显降低了地方政府发债成本,货币政策对地方政府发债成本的影响以通货膨胀预期渠道和信号渠道影响为主。三是货币政策紧缩明显提高了发债期限,货币政策紧缩有利于纠正我国地方债发行期限小于资金投资回报周期的不匹配问题。
[Abstract]:This paper studies the influence mechanism of monetary policy on local bond issuance in China. Based on the bond market transmission mechanism of monetary policy, it concludes five channels of monetary policy influencing local bond issuance: liquidity channel. Inflation expectation channel, risk channel, signal channel and term structure channel. First, the tightening of monetary policy has significantly reduced the probability that local governments will issue bonds, only the number of bonds issued and the scale of debt issuance. The influence of monetary policy on local government bond issuance is mainly influenced by liquidity channel and risk channel. Second, the tightening of monetary policy has significantly reduced the local government bond issuance cost. The impact of monetary policy on the cost of local government bond issuance is dominated by inflation expectation channels and signal channels. Third, monetary policy tightening has significantly increased the duration of bond issuance. The tightening of monetary policy is helpful to correct the mismatch that the maturity of local bond issuance is less than the period of return on capital investment.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行海口中心支行;
【分类号】：F812.5;F822.0
【正文快照】： 一、引言策对地方债发行成本影响,结果显示货币政策对地方根据审计署的数据,省市县三级政府负有偿还责债发行成本具有显著影响,同时指出尽管研究地方债任的债务余额在2010年底为3.87万亿元,在2013年的文献较多,但研究货币政策对地方债影响还较少。6月达到10.58万亿元,年均增长

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