不同货币政策规则在金融冲击下的效应研究

发布时间：2018-01-13 20:18

本文关键词：不同货币政策规则在金融冲击下的效应研究　出处：《吉林大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在经济全球化的背景下,美国的次贷危机不仅对本国经济带来了巨大的创伤,而且通过全球大市场将危机蔓延到了世界经济当中,严重影响世界经济的发展。这是金融冲击在现代经济环境下的最新表现形式。危机之后,许多研究新凯恩斯主义的学者,还有西方发达国家的央行都认识到金融部门的不完善性,而金融冲击正是来源于以金融部门为主体组成的金融市场,金融市场的不完善导致了金融摩擦的出现,信贷活动因此将受到影响,从而引起经济体的波动。这就是金融冲击的作用机制和传导过程。既然金融冲击作为经济周期性波动的重要动力,那么如何有效地应对金融冲击,对于我国这样的新兴市场来说,具有重要的意义,也是本文重点讨论的内容。动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型已经成为宏观经济政策分析的主要工具,主要是因为该模型反映了经济主体的理性预期,运用了一般均衡的思想,具有内在一致性,并且能够很好地分解来自经济外部的冲击。鉴于以上这些优点,本文运用DSGE模型作为研究工具,单独对金融冲击的各个分量进行深入分析,探讨金融冲击对经济内生变量的作用机制,简化现实经济环境中错综复杂的经济现象。文中首先介绍了金融冲击的定义及范畴,对金融冲击的作用机制和传导机制进行充分地剖析,通过相关理论的论述与图解,重点说明货币政策在宏观经济政策中的重要作用,并对货币政策规则的选取提出了建设性的意见。在实证方面,本文利用DSGE模型对前瞻型、当期型以及后顾型的货币政策规则进行了仿真模拟,观察不同货币政策规则下经济系统的表现,又将货币政策中对信贷量的关注水平分成低中高三种程度,根据不同冲击下的脉冲响应函数的结果,比较不同情况下的经济变量的运行情况,并分析每种情况的优劣程度。同样地,判断好坏的标准主要是经济体中各变量偏离稳态值的程度以及冲击后的恢复速度,最后发现后顾型的货币政策规则稳健性更好,各项数据也更接近现实经济。在文章的最后,综合实证分析,本文给出了相应的结论:(1)我国的风险管理体系需要进一步的完善,需要一套完整的、多层次的风险管理系统,将金融冲击的不利影响降低,强化中央银行的管理职能,建立完善的宏观经济政策体系。(2)建立完善的信贷市场,多层次的信贷市场能增加中小规模的信贷供给数量,疏通中小企业的融资渠道,使信贷市场运转更为顺畅。(3)将后顾型货币政策作为常规规则,同时增加货币政策中信贷的关注度,利用不同的货币政策相互配合,制定更加有效的宏观经济政策,抵御金融冲击对实体经济的影响,保证经济的平稳运行。
[Abstract]:In the context of economic globalization, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has not only brought great trauma to its own economy, but also spread the crisis to the world economy through the global market. This is the latest manifestation of financial shocks in the modern economic environment. After the crisis, many new Keynesian scholars studied. The central banks of the western developed countries have realized the imperfections of the financial sector, and the financial shock comes from the financial market which is composed of the financial sector. The imperfect financial market leads to the appearance of financial friction. Credit activity will therefore be affected, thus causing volatility in the economy. This is the mechanism and transmission process of financial shocks, since financial shocks are an important driving force for cyclical economic fluctuations. So how to deal with financial shocks effectively is of great significance to emerging markets such as China. Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model has become the main tool of macroeconomic policy analysis, mainly because the model reflects the rational expectations of economic agents. Using the thought of general equilibrium, it has the inherent consistency, and can decompose the shock from the external economy very well. In view of these advantages, this paper uses the DSGE model as the research tool. In order to explore the mechanism of financial shocks on endogenous economic variables, this paper analyzes each component of financial shocks in depth. Firstly, the definition and category of financial shock are introduced, and the mechanism and transmission mechanism of financial shock are fully analyzed. Through the discussion and illustration of relevant theories, this paper mainly explains the important role of monetary policy in macroeconomic policy, and puts forward constructive suggestions on the selection of monetary policy rules. In this paper, we use the DSGE model to simulate the prospective, current and backward monetary policy rules, and observe the performance of the economic system under different monetary policy rules. The attention level of monetary policy to the amount of credit is divided into three levels: low, middle and high. According to the results of impulse response function under different shocks, the operation of economic variables under different conditions is compared. Similarly, the criteria for judging the quality of each case are the extent to which the variables in the economy deviate from the steady-state value and the recovery rate after the shock. Finally, it is found that the back-care monetary policy rules are more robust, and the data are closer to the real economy. At the end of the article, the comprehensive empirical analysis. This paper gives the corresponding conclusion: (1) China's risk management system needs to be further improved, and a complete, multi-level risk management system is needed to reduce the adverse impact of financial shocks. Strengthen the management functions of the central bank, establish a sound macroeconomic policy system. 2) establish a sound credit market, multi-level credit market can increase the number of small and medium-sized credit supply. Dredge the financing channels of small and medium-sized enterprises, make the credit market run more smoothly.) take the backward monetary policy as the regular rule, and increase the attention of the credit in the monetary policy at the same time. Using different monetary policies to coordinate with each other, to formulate more effective macroeconomic policies, to resist the impact of financial shocks on the real economy, and to ensure the smooth operation of the economy.
【学位授予单位】：吉林大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0;F832

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