理解中国的金融周期:理论、测算与分析

发布时间：2018-01-17 23:12

本文关键词：理解中国的金融周期:理论、测算与分析　出处：《国际金融研究》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于中国季度数据系统测算了1996-2015年中期低频范围内的中国金融周期,对中国金融周期与经济周期间的联系作用进行了比较与实证分析,解读了中国金融周期的现实含义。结果表明:第一,2004年第一季度至2008年第四季度,我国处于"掩盖脆弱性繁荣"的金融周期上行期;在2009年第一季度至2015年第二季度处于刺激政策后"未完成衰退"的金融周期下行期。第二,中国金融周期比经济周期持续时间更长、波动幅度更大;中国金融系统对实体经济波动具有显著的领先放大作用。因此,在当前金融周期与经济周期叠加下行期内,我国当局不仅应关注实体经济增速,更须防范过度刺激政策所引发的金融失衡风险。
[Abstract]:Based on the Chinese quarterly data system, this paper calculates the Chinese financial cycle in the middle low frequency range from 1996 to 2015, and makes a comparative and empirical analysis of the relationship between the Chinese financial cycle and the economic week. The results show that: first, from in the first quarter of 2004 to in the fourth quarter of 2008, China is in the upward period of "covering up the fragile prosperity" of the financial cycle; From in the first quarter of 2009 to in the second quarter of 2015, the financial cycle was in the downward phase of the "incomplete recession" after stimulus. Second, the Chinese financial cycle lasted longer than the economic cycle. Greater volatility; China's financial system plays a leading role in amplifying the volatility of the real economy. Therefore, in the current financial cycle and the economic cycle superimposed in the downward period, our authorities should not only pay attention to the real economy growth rate. It is also necessary to guard against the risk of financial imbalances caused by excessive stimulus policies.
【作者单位】：南开大学金融学院;中国社科院世界经济与政治研究所;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目(批准号:13AJL008与批准号:14AZD032) 教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目(批准号:14JJD790030) 国家社科重大课题(批准号:16ZDA031)资助
【分类号】：F832
【正文快照】： 引言全球经济发展的历史经验表明,金融市场与宏观经济的周期性波动并不完全一致。1990年的日本和2007年的美国,在经济高速增长、通货膨胀保持平稳的情况下,都遭遇了大规模的资本市场崩盘。严重的信贷收缩和资产价格缩水引发了长期经济衰退。以真实经济周期为基础的传统周期理

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