“滞胀”情况下正斜率的菲利普斯曲线研究

发布时间：2018-01-20 22:32

本文关键词： 滞胀菲利浦斯曲线效率工资理性预期奥肯定律　出处：《天津工业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：菲利普斯曲线的提出、修正与发展贯穿着西方国家经济发展的现实。在经历了 20世纪30年代的经济大萧条之后,凯恩斯主义理论主导了西方经济政策的逻辑。经济运行的数据也大体呈现出通货膨胀率与失业率之间的反方向变化的菲利普斯曲线形态,以此为依据政策制定者在短期可以在高通货膨胀和高失业率之间做出取舍。然而,在经历了相当长时间的对经济的完美调控之后,20世纪70年代的经济数据否定了先前菲利普斯所描述的失业与通货膨胀的关系,凯恩斯的理论不能对此现象做出令人信服的解释,更提不出解决"滞胀"的具体措施,这成为一些自由学派批判凯恩斯理论的突破点。货币主义的代表人物弗里德曼在自然率假说的基础上对菲利普斯曲线进行了扩展,认为其演变过程分为三个阶段,其根据7个工业化国家通货膨胀率和失业率的经验数据提出了从1966年开始的后]0年间通货膨胀率和失业率是呈同方向变动的斜率为正的菲利普斯曲线。与此同时,一些其他经济学派也从其自身的理论出发从不同角度分析了 "滞胀"发生的原因。以此作为起点,本文在综合各主要学派"滞胀"理论的基础上,使用主流的宏观经济模型对"滞胀"的正斜率菲利普斯曲线做出理论上的推导。并且结合发达国家在治理"滞胀"中的经济政策和新兴经济体国家近年来出现的"滞胀"的原因,对所推导出的正斜率菲利普斯曲线表达式的经济含义进行解读,提炼出应对及预防"滞胀"的核心政策和对我国的借鉴意义。
[Abstract]:The proposed Phillips curve was revised and developed through the reality of economic development in western countries after the Great Depression in 1930s. Keynesian theory dominates the logic of western economic policy, and the data of economic operation generally show the Phillips curve of the opposite direction between inflation rate and unemployment rate. Based on this, policymakers can make a trade-off between high inflation and high unemployment in the short term. However, after a long period of perfect regulation of the economy. The economic data of 1970s negate the relationship between unemployment and inflation as previously described by Phillips, and Keynes' theory does not provide a convincing explanation for this phenomenon. The concrete measures to solve the problem of "stagflation" can not be put forward. This became a breakthrough point for some liberal schools to criticize Keynes' theory. Friedman, the representative of monetarism, expanded the Phillips curve on the basis of the natural rate hypothesis. It is considered that the evolution process can be divided into three stages. Based on the empirical data of inflation rate and unemployment rate in seven industrialized countries, a Phillips curve with a positive slope of the rate of inflation and unemployment in the same direction during the period from 1966 onwards is put forward. In the meantime. Some other economic schools have also analyzed the causes of stagflation from different angles from their own theories. As a starting point, this paper synthesizes the "stagflation" theory of the main schools. The mainstream macroeconomic model is used to deduce the positive slope Phillips curve of stagflation. And the causes of "stagflation" in emerging economies in recent years. This paper interprets the economic meaning of the derived positive slope Phillips curve expression, and abstracts the core policy to deal with and prevent "stagflation" and its reference significance to our country.
【学位授予单位】：天津工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.5

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