中国通胀预期测度及时变系数的菲利普斯曲线

发布时间：2018-01-20 22:42

本文关键词： 通货膨胀预期调查问卷学习型预期时变菲利普斯曲线　出处：《管理世界》2017年05期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：论文分析了中国通货膨胀预期问卷调查系统情况,对比分析了差额法、C-P法、改进C-P法和时变系数法在测度通货膨胀预期中的效果,接着将学习型预期理论和调查问卷法结合,提出了可以克服传统方法不足的新方法:滚动法和递归法,并对比分析了这两种新方法与传统方法的优缺点,认为可预测滚动法最适合用来进行测度公众通货膨胀预期值,既可以起到预测作用,又克服了已经实现的预期值随着信息更新而变化的不足,另外实证结果还表明公众通货膨胀预期的非对称性,公众对物价上涨更敏感,而且近年有加剧趋势。最后将预期测度成果应用于菲利普斯曲线,构建时变系数的菲利普斯曲线,分析了中国菲利普斯曲线的动态变化情况,并提出相应的对策建议。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the questionnaire system of inflation expectation in China, and compares the effectiveness of the difference method with C-P method, the improved C-P method and the time-varying coefficient method in the measurement of inflation expectation. Then combining the learning expectation theory with the questionnaire method, this paper puts forward a new method which can overcome the shortcomings of traditional methods: rolling method and recursive method, and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of these two new methods and traditional methods. It is considered that the predictive rolling method is the most suitable method to measure the expected value of public inflation, which can not only play a predictive role, but also overcome the deficiency of the realized expected value changing with the update of the information. In addition, the empirical results also show that the public inflation expectations are asymmetric, the public is more sensitive to price increases, and there is an increasing trend in recent years. Finally, the expected measurement results are applied to the Phillips curve. The Phillips curve with time-varying coefficient is constructed, and the dynamic changes of Phillips curve in China are analyzed, and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【作者单位】：安徽财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学重点基金项目(14AJY027) 教育部创新团队发展计划(IRT13020)的资助
【分类号】：F822.5
【正文快照】： 预期是一个重要的概念,但其实质是公众的一种心理感受和主观心理判断,是公众基于自身知识水平,利用已有信息,如通货膨胀过去走势和变动规律、宏观经济形势、政府调控措施、央行公告信息等所综合做出的一个主观判断。预期通过影响心理而影响经济活动,预期不确定会影响经济不确

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