金融资产短缺与约束型资产替代

发布时间：2018-01-22 11:01

本文关键词： 金融资产短缺约束型资产替代高房价高储蓄存款　出处：《现代经济探讨》2017年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：资产短缺假说能够在一定程度上解释中国存在的流动性过剩和非货币资产价格高涨。但是由于未考虑中国金融市场长期处于利率管制状态这一现实情况,该假说所提出的资产泡沫形成机制无法完全适用于中国现实。研究表明,在金融资产短缺条件下,约束型资产替代机制发挥了重要作用,金融资产短缺通过约束型资产替代引起货币涌向替代类资产,导致高储蓄存款和高房价长期并存。结论表明,一方面,资产泡沫、高房价以及高储蓄等问题要从金融市场的发展着手,通过增加优质金融资产的供给来解决;另一方面,随着利率市场化的基本完成,利率机制和约束型资产替代机制将会共同发生作用,金融资产泡沫产生的概率增大,在丰富金融产品供给的同时,必须注意防范金融风险。
[Abstract]:To some extent, the asset shortage hypothesis can explain the excess liquidity and the high price of non-monetary assets in China, but it does not take into account the fact that China's financial market has been in the state of interest rate control for a long time. The hypothesis of asset bubble formation mechanism can not be fully applicable to the reality of China. The study shows that the constraint asset substitution mechanism plays an important role in the financial asset shortage. The shortage of financial assets causes money to flow to substitute assets through the substitution of constrained assets, which leads to the coexistence of high savings deposits and high house prices for a long time. The conclusion shows that, on the one hand, asset bubbles. The problems of high house price and high savings should be solved by increasing the supply of high quality financial assets from the development of financial market. On the other hand, with the completion of interest rate marketization, interest rate mechanism and constrained asset substitution mechanism will work together, the probability of financial asset bubble will increase, while enriching the supply of financial products. We must guard against financial risks.
【作者单位】：南京大学商学院博士后流动站;南京银行博士后工作站;南京邮电大学贝尔英才学院;南京大学商学院;
【基金】：教育部长江学者与创新团队发展计划项目“经济转型背景下稳定物价的货币政策”(项目编号:IRT13020)
【分类号】：F832.5
【正文快照】： 一、问题的提出进入新世纪以来,我国宏观经济运行呈现出两大突出现象:一方面,货币供应量超常规增长,表现为流动性过剩。改革开放初期,我国的M2/GDP约为23.6%,而到了2014年M2/GDP达到194%,接近200%。与美国相比,我国的经济总量大约为美国的一半,但是M2却是美国的1.5倍,如此庞

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