货币理论与货币政策中的自然利率及其估算

发布时间：2018-01-27 06:56

本文关键词： 自然利率新魏克塞尔框架价格型货币调控状态空间模型　出处：《世界经济》2016年12期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文详细分析了自然利率在货币理论和政策中的重要意义,从理论上说明了新魏克赛尔框架下自然利率的具体含义,并构建状态空间模型对中国的自然利率进行了估算。结果表明,样本期内中国自然利率均值约为2.5%左右,与中国资本回报率的典型性事实相符;自然利率是与货币政策框架无关并源于实体经济的变量,可作为经济增长的先行指标,为货币政策的制定和评估提供重要依据;中国自然利率主要取决于技术进步和人口增速,随着劳动力人口的逐步下降,未来中国自然利率将在较高水平呈现温和下降态势,这对今后顺利推进货币调控模式转型、成功开展利率决策和新常态下经济的长远健康发展具有非常重要的意义。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the significance of natural interest rate in monetary theory and policy is analyzed in detail, and the specific meaning of natural interest rate under the framework of New Weisel is explained theoretically. The state space model is constructed to estimate the natural interest rate in China. The results show that the average natural interest rate in the sample period is about 2.5%, which is consistent with the typical facts of the rate of return on capital in China. Natural interest rate is a variable independent of the framework of monetary policy and derived from the real economy. It can be used as a leading indicator of economic growth and provides an important basis for the formulation and evaluation of monetary policy. China's natural interest rate mainly depends on technological progress and population growth. With the gradual decline of the labor force, China's natural interest rate will show a moderate decline at a higher level in the future. This is of great significance to promote the transformation of monetary control mode successfully carry out interest rate decision-making and the long-term healthy development of economy under the new normal condition in the future.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行营业管理部;中国人民银行金融研究所;
【基金】：作者承担的中国金融四十人论坛·青年论坛课题“价格型货币调控中的利率锚”阶段性成果国家社科基金后期项目(15FJL011) 中国博士后科学基金第59批面上项目(2016M590170)的资助
【分类号】：F822.0
【正文快照】： 一引言所谓自然利率(natural rate of interest)就是与经济的长期潜在产出(或最大就业)和稳定的通货膨胀(下文简称通胀)相符的短期实际利率(Yellen,2015;Kiley,2015; Brainard,2015),这个概念最早由瑞典经济学家Wicksell(1898)正式提出。在传统凯恩斯主义导致的“滞胀”恶

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