全球价值链视角下人民币实际有效汇率的新测算及影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-02-05 02:52

本文关键词： 全球价值链实际有效汇率贸易权重　出处：《国际贸易问题》2017年09期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：随着国际分工的不断深化,中间品贸易导致的重复计算夸大了真实贸易的规模,使得实际有效汇率测算中的重要指标~贸易权重的准确性深受影响。本文在全球价值链框架下,通过引入增加值贸易核算体系,对人民币实际有效汇率进行重新测算,并在此基础上分析影响人民币实际有效汇率的相关因素。研究结果表明:基于增加值的人民币实际有效汇率(Ti VAREER)与传统实际有效汇率(STDREER)的上升趋势总体一致,但在大多数时期内,人民币Ti VAREER的升值趋势较STDREER更加显著;Ti VAREER主要受国外价格水平和双边名义汇率的影响,全球价值链贸易权重的引入在一定程度上减缓了实际有效汇率的上升趋势,这意味着参与全球价值链有利于减缓人民币Ti VAREER的升值趋势。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of international division of labor, the repeated calculation caused by intermediate trade exaggerates the scale of real trade. The accuracy of trade weight is greatly affected by the measurement of real effective exchange rate. Under the framework of global value chain, this paper introduces the system of value added Trade Accounting. The real effective exchange rate of RMB is recalculated. On the basis of the above analysis, the relevant factors affecting the real effective exchange rate of RMB are analyzed. The results show that the real effective exchange rate of RMB based on added value is higher than that of the traditional effective exchange rate. The upward trend of STDREERwas consistent. However, in most periods, the trend of appreciation of RMB Ti VAREER is more significant than that of STDREER. Ti VAREER is mainly affected by foreign price level and bilateral nominal exchange rate. The introduction of trade weight in global value chain slows down the rising trend of real effective exchange rate to some extent. This means that participation in the global value chain is conducive to slowing the appreciation of RMB Ti VAREER.
【作者单位】：北京工业大学经济与管理学院;南开大学国际经济研究所;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金“货币政策多目标交互行为协调控制研究”(61273230) 北京市社科基金“新能源产业政策与贸易政策的匹配性研究”(S0011012201601)
【分类号】：F832.6
【正文快照】： 引言及文献评述有效汇率的概念最初由Hirsch和Higgins(1970)提出,分为名义有效汇率(Nominal Effective Exchange Rate,NEER)和实际有效汇率(Real Effective Ex-change Rate,REER)。名义有效汇率指一国货币与多种货币双边汇率的加权平均数,实际有效汇率指利用该国与样本国家或

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