人民币汇率变动对外商直接投资的影响研究

发布时间：2018-02-08 08:29

本文关键词： 汇率变动外商直接投资产业结构　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：自从2008年全球金融危机爆发以后,世界各国经济受到了很大冲击,发达国家复苏动力不足,发展中国家增速减慢,全球需求低迷。2012年开始,中国GDP年增长率降到8%以下,国内经济亟待转型,产业结构升级已迫在眉睫。在这种背景下,中国吸收外商投资水平仍保持稳定增长,根据联合国报告数据显示,2016年世界外资流入量下降13%,外商对华投资逆势增长,增速为2.3%,因此在目前中国经济增速下滑、产业结构优化迫在眉睫之时,中国吸收外商直接投资对中国经济发展与转型的影响不容忽视。从汇率角度看,1994年中国第一次汇改以来,人民币汇率制度逐渐完善,央行对人民币汇率的干预越来越小,人民币汇率弹性日渐增大。汇率的变动会影响跨国经营中的收益和风险,因而探究人民币汇率水平的变动对中国吸收外商投资规模及投资结构的影响,具有一定的现实意义。本文首先对前人的相关文献进行整理和述评,总结以往研究中的方法与不足;其次对汇率影响FDI的机制进行研究,为下文的研究提供理论基础;接着分析了人民币汇率制度和外商对华投资的发展历程及现状,并直观地对比研究了人民币实际有效汇率与中国吸收外商投资的总体规模、三次产业吸收外资的规模的关系;随后采用单位根检验、协整分析、误差修正模型的方法进行实证分析,在建立模型时还引入了中国经济发展状况、世界经济形势、中国对外开放程度作为解释变量,全面地研究了人民币汇率水平变动影响外商投资规模和结构的情况。实证分析的结果表明:从整体角度来看,人民币实际有效汇率的升高对外商直接投资的发展有促进作用;从三次产业的角度看,人民币实际有效汇率与第一产业吸收外资关系不明确,但人民币汇率升值会激励第二、第三产业吸收外商投资的发展,且对第二产业吸收外资的促进作用较大。同时,当人民币实际有效汇率升高时,第二产业吸收外资所受到的推动作用大于第三产业,而人民币实际有效汇率下降又会同时抑制第二、第三产业吸收外资,可知人民币实际有效汇率的变动对外商投资结构、国内产业结构的升级并没有显著作用。最后,本文基于当前国内外经济形势和汇率变动状况,结合研究结论,提出相应的政策建议,并对未来的研究方向进行了展望。
[Abstract]:Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the world economy has been hit hard. The recovery of developed countries has been insufficient, the growth rate of developing countries has slowed down, and global demand has been low. Since 2012, the annual growth rate of China's GDP has fallen below 8%. The domestic economy is in urgent need of transformation and the upgrading of the industrial structure is imminent. Against this background, China's level of foreign investment continues to grow steadily. According to United Nations report data, in 2016, the inflow of foreign investment in the world dropped by 13 percent, and foreign investment in China increased by 2.3percent against the trend. Therefore, at a time when China's economic growth rate is declining and industrial structure optimization is imminent, The impact of China's foreign direct investment on China's economic development and transformation cannot be ignored. From the point of view of the exchange rate, since China's first exchange rate reform in 1994, the RMB exchange rate regime has gradually improved, and the central bank's intervention in the RMB exchange rate has become smaller and smaller. The exchange rate elasticity of RMB is increasing day by day. The change of exchange rate will affect the income and risk in transnational operation. Therefore, this paper probes into the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on the scale and structure of foreign investment absorbed by China. It has some practical significance. Firstly, this paper collates and reviews the previous literatures, summarizes the methods and shortcomings of previous studies, and then studies the mechanism of exchange rate influencing FDI, which provides the theoretical basis for the following research. Then, it analyzes the development history and current situation of RMB exchange rate system and foreign investment in China, and intuitively studies the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of RMB and the total scale of foreign investment absorbed by China, and the scale of three industries absorbing foreign capital. Then the unit root test, cointegration analysis and error correction model are used to make empirical analysis. When the model is established, the economic development of China, the world economic situation and the degree of China's opening to the outside world are introduced as explanatory variables. This paper comprehensively studies the influence of RMB exchange rate level on the scale and structure of foreign investment. The empirical results show that: from the overall point of view, the rise of the real effective exchange rate of RMB can promote the development of foreign direct investment; From the perspective of the three industries, the relationship between the real effective exchange rate of the RMB and the absorption of foreign capital by the primary industry is not clear, but the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate will stimulate the development of the second and tertiary industries to absorb foreign investment. At the same time, when the real effective exchange rate of RMB rises, the secondary industry receives more impetus than the tertiary industry. However, the decline in the real effective exchange rate of the RMB will at the same time restrain the absorption of foreign capital by the tertiary industry. We can see that the change of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB has no significant effect on the structure of foreign investment and the upgrading of the domestic industrial structure. Finally, Based on the current domestic and foreign economic situation and exchange rate changes, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy suggestions and prospects for the future research direction combined with the conclusions of the research.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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