人民币国际化进程中汇率的影响因素分析

发布时间：2018-02-11 04:32

本文关键词： 人民币国际化汇率 SDR　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：21世纪以来,为顺应经济全球化发展趋势,我国不断扩大对外开放,积极与世界各国展开多方位的经济、金融合作。随着对外贸易的发展,人民币在国际社会上的流动性也不断提高。2009年7月,我国正式启动跨境人民币结算业务试点,人民币国际化进程由此开启,之后进入快速发展期。2016年10月1日,人民币被正式纳入SDR货币篮子,国际化程度进一步提升。与此同时,在国际化进程中,面对更为开放的国际市场,人民币汇率波动幅度不断扩大,对宏观经济的影响日益增强。因此,明确国际化进程中汇率的影响因素以便更好地对其进行管理,对我国经济发展至关重要。基于此,本文从传统汇率理论出发,首先分析了当前人民币国际化进展状况及汇率波动特点。然后根据外汇供求影响汇率,分别从国际收支、资本市场、国内经济三大方面分析了国际化进程中汇率的影响因素。主要包括跨境人民币结算、直接投资、境内外利差等。之后采用相关数据就其对汇率的影响进行了实证检验。同时,对于人民币加入SDR这一事件,本文采用事件研究法,实证检验了其对汇率的影响程度。研究结果表明,在人民币国际化进程中,跨境人民币结算规模、外商直接投资、境内外利差是导致人民币升值的主要原因,而货币供应量、央行外汇占款增加则是引起人民币贬值的主要因素。此外,人民币加入SDR后,短期内这一事件并未引起汇率大幅波动,但随着事件窗的扩大,影响力不断加强。最后,基于研究所得结论,本文对人民币国际化背景下的汇率管理提出了一些政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since 21th century, in order to conform to the trend of economic globalization, our country has continuously expanded its opening to the outside world, and has been actively engaged in multi-faceted economic and financial cooperation with other countries in the world. With the development of foreign trade, The liquidity of RMB in the international community is also increasing. In July 2009, China officially launched the cross-border RMB settlement business pilot project, which led to the beginning of the RMB internationalization process, and then entered a period of rapid development. On October 1st 2016, The RMB was formally included in the SDR currency basket, and the degree of internationalization was further enhanced. At the same time, in the process of internationalization, in the face of a more open international market, the RMB exchange rate fluctuated continuously. Therefore, it is very important for China's economic development to make clear the influence factors of exchange rate in the process of internationalization in order to manage it better. Based on this, this paper starts from the traditional exchange rate theory. This paper first analyzes the current progress of RMB internationalization and the characteristics of exchange rate fluctuations. Then, according to the influence of foreign exchange supply and demand on the exchange rate, from the balance of payments and capital markets, This paper analyzes the influencing factors of exchange rate in the process of internationalization in three aspects of domestic economy, including cross-border RMB settlement, direct investment, domestic and foreign interest margin, etc. For the event of RMB entry into SDR, this paper uses event study method to empirically test its influence on exchange rate. The results show that, in the process of RMB internationalization, cross-border RMB settlement scale, foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign direct investment (FDI), foreign direct investment (FDI), The difference between domestic and foreign interest rates is the main reason for the appreciation of the RMB, while the increase in the money supply and the increase in the central bank's foreign exchange account is the main factor leading to the depreciation of the RMB. In addition, after the RMB joins the SDR, In the short term, this event does not cause the exchange rate to fluctuate significantly, but with the expansion of the event window, the influence is constantly strengthened. Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, this paper puts forward some policy recommendations on the exchange rate management under the background of RMB internationalization.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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