金融发展与国民储蓄率:一个倒U型关系

发布时间：2018-02-14 07:27

本文关键词： 金融发展国民储蓄率融资约束倒U型关系　出处：《经济研究》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：金融发展会同时影响家庭储蓄与企业投资,从而是决定国民储蓄率的重要因素。基于世界银行1973—2005年的跨国面板数据,本文利用动态面板回归发现金融发展与储蓄率之间存在显著的倒U型关系,即在金融发展水平较低时,储蓄率随着金融市场的发展而逐步提高,而当金融市场发展达到一定的程度后,储蓄率则随之下降。为解释以上实证发现,本文构建了一个家庭与企业均受融资约束的动态一般均衡模型。从理论上,本文证明了金融发展会降低家庭的储蓄动机,同时又会提高企业的投资需求。由于均衡储蓄率由家庭储蓄与企业投资共同决定,模型蕴含了金融发展与总储蓄率之间的非单调关系。数值模拟显示,本文模型能够解释金融发展与储蓄率之间的倒U型关系。
[Abstract]:Financial development affects both household savings and business investment, and is a key determinant of the national savings rate, based on the World Bank's cross-country panel data for 1973-2005. In this paper, using dynamic panel regression, we find that there is a significant inverted U type relationship between financial development and savings rate, that is, when the level of financial development is low, the savings rate increases gradually with the development of financial market. However, when the financial market develops to a certain extent, the savings rate decreases. In order to explain the above empirical findings, this paper constructs a dynamic general equilibrium model in which both households and firms are constrained by financing. This paper proves that financial development can reduce the motivation of household savings and increase the investment demand of enterprises. Since the balanced savings rate is determined by both household savings and enterprise investment, The model implies a non-monotonic relationship between financial development and total savings rate. Numerical simulation shows that the model can explain the inverted U-shaped relationship between financial development and savings rate.
【作者单位】：上海财经大学金融学院和上海市金融信息技术研究重点实验室;上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院;香港科技大学经济系;
【基金】：Hong Kong Research Grant Council(Project 643912) 国家自科基金青年项目(项目号71403166) 上海市哲学社会科学基金青年项目(项目号2014EJL001)资助
【分类号】：F831.2

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