外汇储备减少是否具有通货紧缩效应

发布时间：2018-02-14 18:41

本文关键词： 外汇储备通货紧缩通货膨胀中央银行　出处：《财经科学》2016年03期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：本文基于卢卡斯总供给模型推导出外汇储备增长率与通货膨胀率之间的计量方程,着重研究了我国通货膨胀与外汇储备之间的非线性关联机制。研究结果表明,当经济处于繁荣期时,我国的外汇储备增长对通货膨胀具有显著的拉动效应,此时通货膨胀在很大程度上取决于外汇储备变动;而当经济处于紧缩期时,外汇储备变动将不会对通货膨胀产生显著影响。此外,本文还发现,通货膨胀与外汇储备增长之间同样存在显著的通货膨胀门限效应,具体表现为外汇储备增长对通货膨胀的影响将会随着通货膨胀水平的下降而不断降低。因此,我们应当理性看待央行的结构性减储行为,它仅是现阶段央行进行资本结构平衡的阶段性措施,不会对当前的通货膨胀水平产生显著的通货紧缩效应。
[Abstract]:Based on Lucas' total supply model, this paper deduces the econometric equation between the growth rate of foreign exchange reserve and inflation rate, and emphatically studies the nonlinear correlation mechanism between inflation and foreign exchange reserve in China. When the economy is in a boom period, China's foreign exchange reserve growth has a significant impact on inflation, which depends to a large extent on changes in foreign exchange reserves, while when the economy is in a period of contraction, The changes in foreign exchange reserves will not have a significant impact on inflation. In addition, the paper also finds that there is also a significant inflation threshold effect between inflation and the growth of foreign exchange reserves. Specifically, the impact of the growth of foreign exchange reserves on inflation will continue to decrease with the decline of inflation. Therefore, we should rationally look at the structural reserve reduction behavior of the central bank. It is only a phased measure for the central bank to balance its capital structure at the present stage and will not have a significant deflationary effect on the current inflation level.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量研究中心;
【基金】：国家社科基金重点项目“我国经济发展新常态的形成机理、趋势性特征及经济政策取向研究”(项目编号:15Azd&001)资助
【分类号】：F832.6

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