公司经营业绩、盈余管理与分析师盈余预测误差

发布时间：2018-02-25 05:07

本文关键词： 证券分析师盈余预测误差经营业绩盈余管理　出处：《天津商业大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：近年来,伴随我国证券市场的发展,我国证券分析师也得到了壮大,作为证券分析师发挥作用的手段,他们所做的盈余预测报告也越来越多,同时由于信息需求增加和受制于能力渠道等因素等造成的信息不对称,投资者对分析师的盈余预测报告有了越来越多的关注,可以说证券分析师的盈余预测数据将在很大程度上会影响投资者的价值判断,为了更好的促进我国证券分析师盈余预测的准确度,从而更好的为市场服务,本文运用文献研究法和实证研究的方法,对我国证券分析师盈余预测的误差进行了分析,经过理论分析和论证后,就有关结论有针对性地提出对减小我国证券分析师预测误差的对策建议,从而,帮助广大投资者更加理性地利用分析师的盈余预测报告,为我国证券市场有序健康发展提供方向。本文主要分为五部分进行研究。首先第一部分在谈论有关背景后提出了本文研究的问题和方向,在越来越受国家和投资者重视的情况下,我们需要对分析师盈余预测误差的情况进行更好的解读和分析,在通过对报告盈余的构成进行分析后,我们提出了本文的研究方向,探讨经营业绩和盈余管理在不同的水平程度下,对分析师盈余预测误差的影响,更进一步试图研究两者哪个对误差影响更大及有关盈余预测误差修正的情况。第二部分本文主要论述了盈余预测的三大理论基础,同时对已有的国内外文献进行了整理和详细的阐述以及对本文的启示。第三部分,在一定的理论分析基础和推导后,提出了本文的四个假设,并选取了有关变量,进行了模型设计和数据收集选取等工作。第四部分是描述性统计和实证分析,详细解读了本文实证结果和对此的分析,以及是否符合预期假设等。第五部分,就实证分析结果进行了总结,并以此为基础提出了一些有助于我国证券分析师盈余预测误差较小的三个建议,同时补充了本文可能的不足和以后的研究方向。
[Abstract]:In recent years, with the development of China's securities market, China's securities analysts have also gained strength. As a means for securities analysts to play a role, they have also made more and more earnings forecast reports. At the same time, due to the information asymmetry caused by the increasing demand for information and being constrained by capacity channels, investors are paying more and more attention to the earnings forecast report of analysts. It can be said that the earnings forecast data of securities analysts will to a large extent affect the value judgment of investors. In order to better promote the accuracy of earnings forecast of securities analysts in China and serve the market better, This paper analyzes the error of earnings forecast of securities analysts in China by using the method of literature research and empirical research, after theoretical analysis and demonstration, On the basis of the relevant conclusions, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to reduce the forecast error of China's securities analysts, so as to help the majority of investors to make more rational use of the earnings forecast report of the analysts. This paper is divided into five parts to study. Firstly, after discussing the relevant background, the paper puts forward the problems and directions of this paper. Under the condition that the country and investors pay more and more attention to the situation, we need to better interpret and analyze the error of analyst earnings forecast. After analyzing the composition of the report surplus, we put forward the research direction of this paper. This paper discusses the influence of operating performance and earnings management on analysts' earnings forecast errors in different levels. The second part of this paper mainly discusses the three theoretical bases of earnings forecasting. At the same time, the existing literature at home and abroad are summarized and elaborated in detail, as well as the enlightenment to this paper. The third part, after a certain theoretical analysis and derivation, puts forward the four hypotheses of this paper, and selects the relevant variables. The 4th part is descriptive statistics and empirical analysis, explains the empirical results and analysis of this paper in detail, as well as whether the expected assumptions and so on. 5th, and so on. This paper summarizes the results of empirical analysis and puts forward three suggestions on the basis of which some suggestions are put forward which are helpful to reduce the error of earnings forecast of securities analysts in China. At the same time, it complements the possible shortcomings of this paper and the future research direction.
【学位授予单位】：天津商业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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