杠杆率和偿债负担的宏观经济效应——基于私人非金融部门的视角

发布时间：2018-02-28 03:42

  本文关键词： 私人非金融部门 杠杆率 偿债负担 宏观经济波动　出处：《金融经济学研究》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：将私人非金融部门的杠杆率和偿债负担纳入同一分析框架,从理论层面分析两者与信贷、私人支出等宏观经济变量之间的短期动态和长期均衡关系;在此基础上,通过构建向量误差修正模型对私人非金融部门杠杆率和偿债负担的宏观经济效应进行实证分析。研究结果表明,杠杆率和偿债负担决定了宏观经济变量之间的两种长期关联;杠杆率和偿债负担对信贷增长具有显著的负向作用,而对私人支出并无显著的直接影响;杠杆率和偿债负担在稳态调整过程中对其他经济变量产生的影响促使经济系统趋于稳定,但两者对宏观经济的作用机制和影响后果存在明显差异;平均贷款利率和资产价格增长的内生限制在经济系统稳定中发挥了一定的积极作用。
[Abstract]:To include leverage and debt-servicing burdens in the private non-financial sector in the same analytical framework, and to analyse, at the theoretical level, the short-term dynamic and long-term equilibrium between them and macroeconomic variables such as credit, private expenditure, etc; on this basis, By constructing vector error correction model, the macroeconomic effects of leverage ratio and debt service burden in private non-financial sector are empirically analyzed. The results show that leverage ratio and debt service burden determine two long-term relationships between macroeconomic variables. Leverage ratio and debt service burden have a significant negative effect on credit growth, but have no significant direct impact on private expenditure; The influence of leverage ratio and debt service burden on other economic variables in the process of steady-state adjustment makes the economic system tend to be stable, but there are obvious differences between them on the mechanism and effect of macro-economy. The endogenous restriction of average loan interest rate and asset price growth has played a positive role in the stability of economic system.
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