后危机时代中国货币政策的有效性研究——基于2008年～2016年月度数据的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-01 17:30

本文关键词： 货币政策传导机制 M 脉冲响应分析误差修正模型　出处：《云南师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版)》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：使用2008年1月至2016年6月的月度数据,对次贷危机以来中国货币当局所实施的货币政策的有效性进行理论与实证分析。首先从理论上分析货币政策的传导机制,然后选取公开市场操作与变更法定存款准备金率为货币政策工具的代理变量,广义货币供给量为货币政策中介目标,物价稳定与经济增长作为货币政策的最终目标。通过对代理变量指标进行平稳性检验、协整检验及脉冲响应分析,并构建向量误差修正模型对次贷危机以来货币政策传导机制有效性进行实证分析,得出如下结论:(1)中国货币当局实施的货币政策的传导机制是有效的;(2)次贷危机以来,中国货币政策目标的实现主要靠频繁变更法定存款准备金率来实现;(3)次贷危机以来,央行调整货币政策仍以保持宏观经济增长为主要目标,而在稳定物价方面的效果相对较小。
[Abstract]:The monthly data from January 2008 to June 2016 using the theoretical and empirical analysis of the effectiveness of the implementation of China monetary authorities since the subprime crisis of the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Firstly, the analysis of monetary policy in theory, and then select the proxy variable of open market operations and the change of the legal deposit reserve rate for monetary policy tools, broad money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy, price stability and economic growth as the ultimate goal of monetary policy. Through testing the stationarity of the proxy variables, cointegration test and impulse response analysis, vector error correction model and empirical analysis of the subprime crisis since the monetary policy transmission mechanism validity, draw the following conclusions: (1) conduction China mechanism for the implementation of the monetary policy is effective; (2) since the subprime mortgage crisis, the main implementation of monetary policy Chinese subject We need to change the required reserve requirement rate frequently. (3) since the subprime crisis, the central bank's monetary policy adjustment still takes macroeconomic growth as the main goal, while the effect of stabilizing the price is relatively small.

【作者单位】：四川大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金项目“新型城镇化金融支持研究”(14BJY055)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F822.0

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