汇率传递异质性对中美贸易失衡的解释

发布时间：2018-03-01 23:20

本文关键词： 货币政策汇率传递贸易失衡调整　出处：《世界经济研究》2017年07期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：文章利用VAR模型考察2000~2015年期间中美货币政策对双边贸易的非对称传导事实,从理论上分析中美贸易失衡调整的汇率传递因素,并根据贸易价格汇率传递模型,估计了中美两国出口和进口价格方程,实证检验了中美两国进出口汇率传递的异质性:美国从中国进口的汇率弹性较低,对中国出口的汇率弹性较高,而中国从美国进口的汇率弹性较高,对美国出口的汇率弹性较低,贸易定价模式不同以及汇率制度、通胀率、企业经营效率及商品品质等方面的差异是中美汇率传递异质的主要影响因素。因此,美国扩张性货币政策对中美贸易余额调整的作用非常有限,中美贸易差额不在于人民币汇率的高低,而在于中美国际分工地位和经济结构差异。同时,中国应稳步推进人民币汇率形成机制改革,改善企业经营环境,提高出口商品质量,争取对外贸易定价权。
[Abstract]:By using VAR model, this paper examines the asymmetric transmission of Sino-American monetary policy to bilateral trade from 2000 to 2015, analyzes theoretically the factors of exchange rate transmission in the adjustment of Sino-US trade imbalance, and according to the trade price exchange rate transfer model. This paper estimates the export and import price equations of China and the United States, and empirically tests the heterogeneity of the exchange rate transfer between China and the United States: the exchange rate elasticity of American imports from China is lower, and the exchange rate elasticity to Chinese exports is higher. On the other hand, the exchange rate flexibility of China's imports from the United States is relatively high, the exchange rate flexibility to US exports is relatively low, the trade pricing model is different, and the exchange rate regime and inflation rate are different. The differences in business efficiency and commodity quality are the main factors influencing the heterogeneity of the exchange rate transmission between China and the United States. Therefore, the expansionary monetary policy of the United States has a very limited effect on the adjustment of the balance of trade between China and the United States. The trade gap between China and the United States lies not in the level of the RMB exchange rate, but in the international division of labor status and economic structure differences between China and the United States. At the same time, China should steadily promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, improve the business environment of enterprises, and improve the quality of export commodities. Strive for foreign trade pricing power.
【作者单位】：上海海洋大学经济管理学院;广东海洋大学经济学院;
【基金】：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“美国非常规货币政策对中国经济的溢出效应:基于大宗商品价格波动的视角”(批准号:14YJ790027) 广东省自然科学基金项目“附加值贸易网络关系视角的中国对外贸易模式及转型升级研究(批准号:2016A030313744)” 广东省软科学研究计划项目“广东建设海上丝绸之路经济带科技合作圈的模式与路径研究(批准号:2016A070705063)”
【分类号】：F752.7;F757.12;F832.6

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