中国资本流动与经济增长的关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-08 07:27

本文选题：资本流动　切入点：直接投资　出处：《深圳大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着近年来中国对全球金融一体化的程度加深,国际地缘政治紧张局势加强,封闭主义和贸易保护主义抬头的可能性增强,全球金融环境收紧大于预期、经济增长上行风险加大等一系列的国际环境形成的外部风险,加上中国经济增长放缓幅度加大的内部风险,都不断地冲击着中国这个还没有完全开放资本市场、但却有着全球领先经济增长率的经济体。2016年末,中国资本市场开通"深港通"股票市场互联互通机制,继"沪港通"后又一个连接内地股票市场和香港股票市场的金融创新,在资本更加深度融合的步调下,国内经济面临增速下滑,急需突破结构增长引擎转变的发展瓶颈,对中国资本流动的管理任务变得更加重要。在过去的历史经验中,我们可以看到很多在发展资本市场道路上成功以及失败的例子。面对当前国际经济金融形势新局面,中国如何在经济增长动力下滑的今天处理对资本项目下资本流动的管理?本文通过研究2005年三季度至2016年三季度,即人民币汇率改革以来的金融项目资本流动情况,分析金融项目资本净流动和经济增长的短期关系,用向量自回归(VAR)模型对资本项下的资本流动与经济增长之间的影响关系进行实证分析,提出对中国资本项目下资本流动管理的政策建议。实证研究中发现,资本净流入中国可以提高经济增长率,而资本项目下的直接投资和其他投资资本流动对经济增长有正向效应,影响程度较小,证券投资资本流动对经济增长有负效应,影响程度较大。通过结合理论和实证分析,本文认为在当前经济结构改革和经济增速放缓时期,中国应该攻坚克难渡过转型阵痛期,调整经济发展结构模式,坚持改革开放,便利跨境贸易投资,更好地服务实体经济,防范跨境资本流动风险,维护外汇市场稳定,摒弃快速追求资本项目开放的旧思想,有秩序有条理地逐渐放开资本项目下的资本流动管制,进一步加大对资本市场违法违规行为的查处和惩罚力度,同时完善国内金融市场制度建设,吸收国外资本项目发展宝贵经验,建立宏观审慎管理体制,想方设法促改革稳增长,防止出现经济增速下降情况下的资本流动冲击带来的金融危机甚至是经济危机。
[Abstract]:As China's degree of global financial integration has deepened in recent years, international geopolitical tensions have intensified, the likelihood of a rise in closures and trade protectionism has increased, and the global financial environment has tightened more than expected. A series of external risks formed by the international environment, such as increased upward risks of economic growth, coupled with the increased internal risks of China's economic growth slowdown, are constantly hitting China, um, which has not yet fully opened up its capital market. In end of 2016, China's capital market opened the "Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect" stock market connectivity mechanism, and a financial innovation linking the mainland stock market and the Hong Kong stock market after the "Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect". At the pace of deeper integration of capital, the domestic economy is facing a decline in growth, and the need to break through the development bottleneck of structural growth engine transformation has become even more important to the management of capital flows in China. We can see many examples of success and failure on the road of developing capital market. In the face of the new international economic and financial situation, how can China handle the management of capital flows under the capital account at a time when the economic growth power is declining? This paper analyzes the short-term relationship between net capital flow of financial account and economic growth by studying the financial account capital flow from the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of 2016, that is, since the reform of RMB exchange rate. This paper makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between capital flows and economic growth by using vector autoregressive (VAR) model, and puts forward some policy recommendations on capital flow management under capital account in China. The net inflow of capital into China can increase the economic growth rate, while the direct investment and other investment capital flows under the capital account have a positive effect on the economic growth, and the degree of influence is relatively small, and the portfolio investment capital flow has a negative effect on the economic growth. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper holds that in the current period of economic structural reform and economic growth slowdown, China should overcome the difficulties of the transition period, adjust the structural model of economic development, and adhere to the reform and opening up. To facilitate cross-border trade and investment, better serve the real economy, guard against risks of cross-border capital flows, maintain stability in the foreign exchange market, and abandon the old idea of fast opening up capital accounts, We will gradually liberalize capital flow controls under capital accounts in an orderly and orderly manner, further increase the investigation and punishment of illegal and illegal acts in the capital market, and at the same time improve the construction of domestic financial market systems. We should absorb the valuable experience of foreign capital account development, establish macroprudential management system, try every means to promote reform and steady growth, and prevent the financial crisis or even economic crisis caused by the impact of capital flow under the condition of declining economic growth.
【学位授予单位】：深圳大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.6

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