消费不足、投资过度与偏向性金融政策

发布时间：2018-03-09 16:39

本文选题：金融摩擦　切入点：动态随机一般均衡　出处：《南方经济》2017年02期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：自1996年以来,中国消费产出比与投资产出比分别经历着一降一升的过程,致使经济最终呈现了两个重要性特征:消费不足和投资过度。本文通过在动态随机一般均衡模型中,构建投资偏向性金融政策和内生化趋势性差异特征的方式,分析消费和投资经历的阶段性变化及两个特征的成因和后果。利用中国1996年1季度至2014年4季度的六组季度数据作为观测变量,采用贝叶斯方法估计模型参数,并利用脉冲响应和方差分解等方法分析议题。结果表明:(1)持续稳定有效的投资偏向性金融政策是促成消费产出比快速下降、投资产出比快速上升的主因,进而造成消费不足与投资过度;(2)生产技术进步不仅可以促使消费产出比上升,同时有效抑制了投资过度;(3)家户部门消费偏好的变化和投资的短期调整,是解释投资产出比和投资消费比波动的主因。为此,建立和完善市场化投资环境,促进创新活动,可以有效地抑制过度投资并提高消费产出比。本文研究对科学理解中国经济波动及变化趋势,实现平稳可持续发展具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。
[Abstract]:Since 1996, the consumption output ratio and the investment output ratio in China have gone through a decline and a liter respectively, resulting in two important characteristics of the economy: insufficient consumption and excessive investment. The way of constructing the characteristics of investment bias financial policy and endogenous trend difference, This paper analyzes the periodic changes of consumption and investment and the causes and consequences of the two characteristics. Using six groups of quarterly data from the first quarter of 1996 to the fourth quarter of 2014 as observation variables, Bayesian method is used to estimate the parameters of the model. The results show that the sustained, stable and effective investment biased financial policy is the main reason for the rapid decline of the consumer output ratio and the rapid increase of the investment output ratio. Therefore, the development of production technology can not only increase the ratio of consumption to output, but also effectively restrain the change of consumption preference and the short-term adjustment of investment in the household sector. It is the main reason to explain the fluctuation of investment output ratio and investment consumption ratio. To this end, we should establish and perfect the market-oriented investment environment and promote innovation. This study has important theoretical value and practical significance for the scientific understanding of China's economic fluctuations and trends and the realization of stable and sustainable development.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学金禾经济研究中心;西安交通大学管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目《基于碳减排的产业有序转移和区域协调发展研究》(1282D070) 国家自然科学基金面上项目《非市场经济地位过渡期救济与投资壁垒的风险预警和效应评估》(71073124)的阶段性成果
【分类号】：F224;F832.0

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