人民币汇率向国内价格的传递系数大

发布时间：2018-03-14 16:47

本文选题：汇率　切入点：支出转换效应　出处：《上海金融》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：开放经济中,汇率对一国的通货膨胀水平有重要影响,目前我们国家面临着汇率波动增加与国内经济企稳回升基础不牢的双重矛盾,稳定汇率与保持经济稳定增长之间存在两难,如果汇率的传递系数低,进而汇率的支出转换效应较低,那么最优货币政策应当允许汇率一定程度的波动;反之,如果汇率的传递系数较高,那么央行应当关注汇率波动给国内价格波动带来的不利影响。我们基于理论模型建立了汇率向国内进口品价格(IMP)、生产者价格(PPI)和消费者价格(CPI)传递理论模型,实证分析了汇率向IMP、PPI、CPI的传递系数,检验结果表明:汇改后,我国汇率向国内价格的传递存在阻滞,相对于IMP、PPI,汇率向CPI的传递系数更低;随着时间推移,汇率向CPI的传递系数呈下降趋势。我们在此基础上,提出了政策建议。
[Abstract]:In an open economy, the exchange rate has an important impact on the inflation level of a country. At present, our country is faced with a double contradiction between an increase in exchange rate fluctuations and a weak foundation for domestic economic stability and recovery. There is a dilemma between stabilizing the exchange rate and maintaining stable economic growth. If the transfer coefficient of the exchange rate is low and the expenditure conversion effect of the exchange rate is lower, then the optimal monetary policy should allow the exchange rate to fluctuate to a certain extent. If the transfer coefficient of the exchange rate is higher, Well, the central bank should pay attention to the adverse effects of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic price fluctuations. Based on the theoretical model, we have established a theoretical model for the transmission of exchange rates to the prices of domestic imports (IMP), producer prices (PPI) and consumer prices (CPI). This paper empirically analyzes the transfer coefficient of exchange rate to CPI. The test results show that: after the exchange rate reform, the transfer of exchange rate to domestic price is blocked, and the transfer coefficient from exchange rate to CPI is lower than that of IMP / PPI, and the transfer coefficient to CPI is lower with the passage of time. The transfer coefficient of exchange rate to CPI is decreasing. On this basis, we put forward some policy suggestions.
【作者单位】：北京大学;中国人民银行营业管理部;
【分类号】：F832.6

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