房地产信贷对房价影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 15:54

本文选题：房地产信贷　切入点：房地产价格　出处：《河北大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：1998年,我国实行了商品房的市场化改革,改革实施以来,我国房地产市场的发展进入加速模式,并逐渐成为我国经济发展的支柱产业,在国民生产总值中占比不断增加,对促进我国经济发展起到了关键性作用。住房问题是关系国计民生的重大事项,房价更是关系到社会稳定,人民幸福的重点问题。近十年以来,我国的房地产市场上商品房的供给数量不断增多,价格也在不断的上涨,房价的上涨直接影响到了居民的生活条件以及生活质量,房价的过快增长引起了房地产市场的畸形发展,甚至威胁到了我国国民经济的运行。数据显示,从1999年房改至2016年,我国城市商品房价格由2053元/平方米上涨到7476元/平方米,翻了三倍多。不断上升的房价使得居民生活的幸福指数有所下降,影响到了居民的生活水平的提高,房价的上涨问题已经成为我国居民与政府密切关注的热点问题。为此,我国政府采取多种措施抑制房价的继续上涨,例如出台限购令,但是即使国家出台相应的政策措施,房价的上涨对于工薪阶层来说也已经出现了泡沫化,并对社会造成了不同程度的负面影响。一边是房价快速上涨,一边是居民贷款占据新增贷款的九成以上,这是今年前两个月的房价和信贷数据给人留下的深刻印象,随后而来的则是一线房地产市场的一连串收紧政策。与上一轮限购、限贷政策多集中在一、二线城市有所不同的是,本轮限购波及到了一线周边县市。环一线城市房价的较快上涨,是此次调控加码的诱因,而一线城市投资需求的外溢,是助推周边城市地价和房价不断攀升的主要原因。作为资金密集型行业,房地产的资金来源很大一部分是来源于房地产信贷。但是两者之间到底是怎样的关系呢,两者之间是否存在因果关系?在本文中,我们将会找到答案。本篇论文主要从银行给予房地产的贷款数量与规模出发,着重分析研究了房价的上涨与信贷两者之间究竟存在怎样的关系,对于两者之间的关系分析采取了理论分析与实证研究分析相结合的分析方法。在归纳总结国内与国外商品房价格与信贷之间的关系的基础上,将得到的结果进行汇总,然后阐释分析了房地产价格、以及房地产信贷的发展现状。在此基础上进一步论述了房地产信贷对房价影响的理论分析与传导机制。为了验证两者之间的关系,本文又通过VEC模型对房价与信贷的关系进行了实证研究,并得出结论:信贷的规模会引起商品房价格呈同方向变化,即信贷扩张会使房价上升,反之则会使房价下降,其中个人按揭贷款对房价的影响相对于房地产开发贷款来说影响较大。最后结合我国的房地产市场发展现状,本文主要针对房地产信贷方面提出如何抑制房价的继续上涨的建议。
[Abstract]:In 1998, our country carried out the market-oriented reform of commercial housing. Since the implementation of the reform, the development of the real estate market in our country has entered the accelerated mode, and has gradually become the pillar industry of our country's economic development, accounting for an increasing proportion of the gross national product (GNP). Housing is a major issue related to the national economy and people's livelihood, and housing prices are also the key issues related to social stability and the well-being of the people. The supply of commercial housing in China's real estate market is increasing, and the prices are also rising. The rise of house prices has a direct impact on the living conditions and quality of life of the residents. The excessive increase in housing prices has caused the deformed development of the real estate market and even threatened the operation of the national economy. Data show that from 1999 to 2016, the price of commercial housing in urban areas in China rose from 2053 yuan per square meter to 7476 yuan per square meter. The price of housing has more than tripled. The rising house prices have caused a decline in the happiness index of the residents, which has affected the improvement of the living standards of the residents. The problem of rising house prices has become a hot issue of close concern between the residents and the government in our country. Our government has taken a variety of measures to curb the continued rise in house prices, such as the introduction of purchase restrictions. But even if the state has introduced corresponding policies and measures, the rise in house prices has already been bubbling for the working-class. And has caused varying degrees of negative impact on society. On the one hand, house prices are rising rapidly, and on the other hand, residents' loans account for more than 90% of the new loans. This is the impressive housing price and credit data for the first two months of this year. Then came a series of tightening policies in the first-tier real estate market. Compared with the previous round of restrictions on purchasing, the policy of restricting loans was mainly concentrated in the first and second tier cities. This round of purchase restrictions has spread to counties and cities around the frontline. The relatively rapid rise in housing prices in first-tier cities is the incentive for this adjustment and control increase, and the spillover of investment demand in first-tier cities. As a capital-intensive industry, a large part of the capital source of real estate comes from real estate credit. But what is the relationship between the two? Is there a causal relationship between the two? In this paper, we will find out the answer. This paper focuses on the relationship between the rise of house prices and credit, starting from the amount and scale of bank loans to real estate. The relationship between the two is analyzed by the combination of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. On the basis of summing up the relationship between domestic and foreign commodity housing prices and credit, the results are summarized. Then it explains and analyzes the real estate price, and the development of the real estate credit. On this basis, it further discusses the theoretical analysis and transmission mechanism of the impact of the real estate credit on the house price, in order to verify the relationship between the two. This paper also makes an empirical study on the relationship between house price and credit through VEC model, and concludes that the scale of credit will cause the price of commercial housing to change in the same direction, that is, the expansion of credit will cause the price of house price to rise, otherwise, it will cause the price of house price to fall. Among them, the impact of personal mortgage loans on housing prices is greater than that on real estate development loans. Finally, combining with the current development situation of the real estate market in China, This paper puts forward some suggestions on how to restrain the rising of house price in the aspect of real estate credit.
【学位授予单位】：河北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.4

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