公司债违约案例分析及对完善我国信用评级的启示

发布时间：2018-03-24 09:20

本文选题：公司债违约　切入点：信用风险　出处：《浙江大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：一直以来,中国债券市场都存在着刚性兑付现象,2014年之前从未出现过实质性的债券违约事件。受到2008年金融危机的影响,近年来,无论是全球经济还是原本高速发展的中国经济都处于低迷期,经济下行压力很大,中国债券市场中潜在的信用风险也随之逐渐显露出来,债券违约事件进入高发期。根据Wind数据库的数据统计发现,截至2017年2月13日,中国债券市场共有114只债券发生违约,一共涉及到了 58家发行企业,违约规模573.28亿元。2015年5月25日,国内饮料包装瓶生产的龙头企业珠海中富实业股份有限公司发公告宣布其于2012年发行的"12中富01"债券将无法按期足额偿付本级和当期利息,成为继"11超日债"和"12湘鄂债"之后第三只公募公司债违约案例。本文以已发生违约的债券为样本,采取了面点结合的方式,利用对比分析法和调查研究法,总结出债券违约的主要影响因素。首先,以全部违约债券为样本进行一般性描述分析,以总结出违约债券存在的普遍规律,并且利用分析得出的主要影响因素构建针对具体案例的分析框架;其次,按照之前构建的分析框架结合珠海中富的实际情况对"12中富01"这一典型案例做具体的分析,揭示"12中富01"的主要违约原因。最终在此基础上,作者分析了目前我国债券信用评级的发展现状与不足,并根据分析总结出的影响债券违约的主要因素对完善我国信用评级提出建议。作者希望本文的案例分析研究能够引起有关参与者对债券信用风险的重视,并为之后评估债券违约可能性提供一定的借鉴和参考。
[Abstract]:There has always been a phenomenon of rigid repayment in China's bond market, and there has been no material bond default before 2014. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, in recent years, Both the global economy and the Chinese economy, which was originally developing at a high speed, are in a downturn, and the downward pressure on the economy is great, and the potential credit risks in the Chinese bond market are gradually revealed. Bond defaults have entered a period of high occurrence. According to statistics from the Wind database, as of February 13, 2017, there were 114 bond defaults in the Chinese bond market, involving 58 issuers. The scale of default is 57.328 billion yuan. On May 25, 2015, Zhuhai Zhongfu Industrial Co., a leading domestic beverage packaging bottle manufacturer, announced in a public announcement that its "12 Zhongfu 01" bond issued in 2012 will not be able to pay interest at this and current levels in full on time. It becomes the third public offering company bond default case after "11 super Japanese debt" and "12 Xiang E debt". This paper takes the bonds that have defaulted as the sample, adopts the method of point combination, using the comparative analysis method and the investigation research method, taking the default bond as the sample, using the comparative analysis method and the investigation research method. The main influencing factors of bond default are summarized. First of all, the general description and analysis of all default bonds are carried out in order to sum up the general law of default bonds. And using the analysis of the main factors to build the analysis framework for specific cases; secondly, according to the previous framework of analysis of Zhuhai Zhongfu combined with the actual situation of the typical case of "12 Zhongfu 01" to make a specific analysis. Finally, the author analyzes the current situation and deficiency of the development of bond credit rating in China. According to the main factors that affect bond default, the author puts forward some suggestions to improve the credit rating of our country. The author hopes that the case study in this paper can arouse the attention of the participants to the credit risk of bonds. And for the assessment of the possibility of bond default after a certain reference and reference.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.4

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