美联储货币政策对中国经济的冲击

发布时间：2018-03-26 07:21

本文选题：美联储　切入点：货币政策　出处：《中国工业经济》2017年01期

【摘要】：近年来,美联储货币政策在典型和非典型政策之间频繁切换,这种"异质性"对中国经济产生了动态影响,导致常参数模型所刻画的溢出效应缺乏实际的经济意义。为此,本文构建了带有随机波动率的时变参数因子扩展向量自回归模型,从宏观经济、私人经济和金融市场三个角度来研究美联储货币政策冲击对中国经济造成的动态影响的表现形式及背后的机理。研究发现,动态影响体现在:一方面,不同时期美联储的紧缩性货币政策和量化宽松货币政策都对中国经济产生了负向影响,意味着不同时期的同向货币政策会对中国经济产生反向影响;另一方面,美联储货币政策对中国宏观经济、金融市场、私人经济的影响在时间维度上分别呈现递减、递增、平滑现象。动态影响的根源在于不同时期传导机理的差异。在固定汇率下,美联储通过影响中美利差作用于中国的资本与金融账户,进而影响中国经济;在浮动汇率下,美联储通过干扰人民币与美元汇率来影响中国的经常账户,进而影响中国经济。因此,建议中国人民银行缩小人民币汇率浮动空间,结合数量型量化宽松货币政策,来应对美联储的紧缩性货币政策;建议宽松财政政策与紧缩货币政策并行以及缩减美元在货币篮子中的权重,来应对美联储的量化宽松货币政策。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has frequently switched between typical and atypical policies. This "heterogeneity" has a dynamic impact on the Chinese economy, leading to the lack of practical economic significance in the spillover effects described by the constant parameter model. In this paper, an extended vector autoregressive model of time-varying parameter factors with random volatility is constructed. From the perspective of private economy and financial market, this paper studies the manifestation and mechanism behind the dynamic impact of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shock on China's economy. The study finds that the dynamic impact is reflected in: on the one hand, The contractionary monetary policy of the Federal Reserve and the monetary policy of quantitative easing have both had a negative impact on the Chinese economy in different periods, which means that the codirectional monetary policy in different periods will have a negative impact on the Chinese economy; on the other hand, The influence of the Federal Reserve monetary policy on China's macro economy, financial market and private economy is decreasing, increasing and smoothing in time dimension. The root of the dynamic influence lies in the difference of conduction mechanism in different periods. The Federal Reserve affects the Chinese economy by influencing the capital and financial accounts of China over the spread of interest rates between China and the United States, and by interfering with the exchange rate of the renminbi and the dollar to influence China's current account under the floating exchange rate. Therefore, the people's Bank of China should reduce the floating space of RMB exchange rate, combine quantitative quantitative easing monetary policy to deal with the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy; It is recommended that loose fiscal policy go hand in hand with tighter monetary policy and reduce the dollar's weight in the basket to deal with the Fed's quantitative easing policy.
【作者单位】：吉林大学数量经济研究中心;Business
【基金】：吉林省科技发展计划软科学研究项目“吉林省现代服务业培育和发展研究基础”(批准号20130420035FG)
【分类号】：F837.12

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