人民币均衡汇率水平实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-26 13:08

本文选题：人民币　切入点：均衡汇率　出处：《金融发展评论》2016年08期

【摘要】：人民币汇率水平一直是备受争议的话题。2005年汇改后,人民币汇率被低估的声音不绝于耳。近期,市场上又弥漫着人民币贬值的担忧。那么,人民币市场汇率能否反映外汇市场供求状况,是否被低估或高估成为了一个值得研究的问题。论文采用行为均衡汇率方法进行实证分析,构建了一个包含汇率、经常项目余额占GDP比重、外汇储备、经济增长率、贸易条件五个变量的VAR模型,以此评估人民币均衡汇率和汇率失调程度。研究结果显示,2015年8.11汇改后,人民币实际有效汇率更贴近均衡汇率水平,人民币汇率不存在严重汇率失调。
[Abstract]:The level of the RMB exchange rate has been a controversial topic. After the exchange rate reform in 2005, the RMB exchange rate has been undervalued. Recently, there has been widespread concern about the depreciation of the RMB. Whether the RMB market exchange rate can reflect the supply and demand of foreign exchange market, whether it is undervalued or overvalued has become a problem worth studying. The VAR model of the current account balance as a proportion of GDP, foreign exchange reserves, economic growth rate and terms of trade is used to assess the equilibrium exchange rate of RMB and the degree of exchange rate misalignment. The results of the study show that, after the exchange rate reform on August 11, 2015, The real effective exchange rate of RMB is closer to the equilibrium exchange rate, and there is no serious exchange rate misadjustment in RMB exchange rate.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行沈阳分行;中国人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行;
【分类号】：F832.6

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