人民币汇率预期管理:异质性预期视角下的研究

发布时间：2018-03-31 20:46

本文选题：汇率形成机制　切入点：行为金融学　出处：《南方金融》2017年04期

【摘要】：加强和改进汇率预期管理是保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定的重要手段。依据异质性预期理论和行为金融学原理,外汇市场参与者的羊群效应、噪声交易、投资者情绪等因素影响汇率预期形成,进而通过预期自我实现、自我强化等正反馈机制,对汇率变动产生影响。目前,我国已初步建立人民币汇率预期管理的基本框架,但是在汇率预期管理过程中仍然受到外汇市场参与者结构、文化特征、套利交易行为、居民购汇行为等因素的影响,这就给人民币汇率预期管理带来较大的挑战。为此,要准确把握外汇市场预期变化,根据目标群体特征制定有针对性的管理策略,在汇率走势上升、下降和转换的不同阶段分别采取相应的预期管理手段和措施,更加注重强化中央银行的市场信誉,提升人民币汇率预期管理能力,为稳汇率提供有效保障。
[Abstract]:Strengthening and improving the management of exchange rate expectation is an important means to keep the RMB exchange rate basically stable at the level of reasonable equilibrium. According to the theory of heterogeneity expectation and behavioral finance, the herding effect and noise trading of foreign exchange market participants, Investor sentiment and other factors affect the formation of exchange rate expectations, and then, through positive feedback mechanisms such as self-realization and self-reinforcement of expectations, they have an impact on exchange rate changes. At present, China has initially established a basic framework for the management of RMB exchange rate expectations. However, in the process of exchange rate expectation management, it is still influenced by the structure of participants in the foreign exchange market, cultural characteristics, arbitrage trading behavior, residents' foreign exchange purchase behavior and so on, which brings a great challenge to the management of RMB exchange rate expectation. It is necessary to accurately grasp the expected changes in the foreign exchange market, formulate targeted management strategies according to the characteristics of the target groups, and adopt corresponding expected management means and measures at different stages of exchange rate rising, falling and changing. More attention should be paid to strengthening the market reputation of the central bank, improving the management ability of RMB exchange rate expectation, and providing effective guarantee for stabilizing the exchange rate.
【作者单位】：中国人民银行海口中心支行;
【基金】：国家外汇管理局2016年重点课题《人民币汇率预期形成机制与管理》的研究成果
【分类号】：F832.6

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