会计盈余、市场估值与经济增长

发布时间：2018-04-01 19:36

本文选题：会计盈余　切入点：账面市值比　出处：《会计与经济研究》2017年05期

【摘要】：利用我国沪深A股公司数据,研究上市公司总体会计盈余和总体账面市值比对GDP增长是否具有预测功能。研究发现,我国上市公司总体季度会计盈余增长率与未来1-4季度GDP增长有显著相关性;而上市公司总体账面市值比与未来GDP增长率的相关性较弱,预测功能只在未来1期和2期显著。进一步研究发现,将两者纳入同一模型对未来GDP增长的解释能力显著提高,但与会计盈余相比,账面市值比具有的信息含量较弱。
[Abstract]:Using the data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share companies in China, this paper studies whether the ratio of total accounting earnings to overall book market value of listed companies can predict the growth of GDP. There is a significant correlation between the growth rate of total quarterly accounting earnings of listed companies in China and the growth of GDP in the next 1-4 quarters, while the overall book value of listed companies is weaker than that of future GDP growth rates. The forecasting function is only significant in the future period 1 and 2. Further study shows that the ability to explain the future GDP growth is improved significantly when the two models are included in the same model, but the information content of the book market value ratio is weaker than that of the accounting earnings.
【作者单位】：天津财经大学商学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71272189)
【分类号】：F124.1;F275;F832.51

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