基于分析师利益冲突视角的乐观偏差实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-02 23:43

本文选题：分析师　切入点：盈利预测　出处：《西南交通大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：分析师通过综合宏观经济运行状况、公司经营状况以及发展潜力,发布盈利预测研究报告,这成为了投资者进行决策的主要依据。然而,分析师同时存在着严重的负面作用。在信息不对称的市场中,分析师起到了信息传递的桥梁作用,但是分析师无法避免多种利益冲突,这些利益冲突主要包括了来自管理层、机构投资者、券商经纪、投行以及自营业务的利益冲突等。本文以上市公司管理层的压力为研究视角,探讨该利益诱导给分析师乐观偏差造成的影响。管理层作为私有信息的一个重要来源,分析师为获取更多信息就会与管理层保持良好的私人关系,另一方面,管理层可能会揣摩到分析师的顾虑而利用这点向其诱导,从而使分析师提供有利于该公司的有偏研究报告,这样会导致分析师预测行为与其天然信息提供者的角色相冲突。因此,研究管理层对分析师的利益诱导对分析师乐观偏差的作用具有一定意义的。此外,信息透明度代表的是上市公司的公有信息,充足的公有信息能够降低分析师对私有信息的依赖程度,在这种情况下则会减弱利益冲突对分析师乐观偏差的正向作用。本文以2012—2014年深圳证券交易所A股主板上市公司的数据为研究样本,通过建立模型实证检验分析师面临管理层的利益冲突是否对分析师盈利预测乐观偏差产生影响,并且进一步深入探讨了信息透明度对两者关系的影响。结果表明:(1)利益冲突能促成分析师在盈利预测时产生乐观偏差的现象,而最佳分析师的利益冲突对其预测的乐观性的影响较弱;(2)若上市公司具有较高的信息披露考评结果或者业绩预告质量时,会显著减弱利益冲突对分析师乐观偏差的影响,这表明信息透明度越高,两者正向关系会得到减弱。本文借鉴了过去对分析师盈利预测的研究,并根据我国证券市场的特点,进一步深入挖掘分析师乐观偏差的影响因素。本文从利益冲突、信息透明度两个维度,探索分析师盈利预测的乐观偏差行为,并且深入分析这种关系形成的原因,研究结果具有一定的普遍性。本文的研究成果不仅补充了分析师乐观倾向的理论研究以及相关文献,更是有助于提高证券市场的有效性以及提高资源配置的效率。本文的研究结果为监管相关部门如何规范引导分析师行为提供有效的建议。
[Abstract]:Analysts report earnings forecasts by synthesizing macroeconomic performance, company performance and growth potential, which has become the main basis for investors to make decisions.However, analysts also have serious negative effects.In the asymmetric information market, the analyst acts as a bridge of information transmission, but the analyst can not avoid a variety of conflicts of interest, including mainly from management, institutional investors, brokers,Investment banking and proprietary business conflicts of interest and so on.From the perspective of management pressure of listed companies, this paper discusses the influence of this interest inducement on analysts' optimistic bias.As an important source of private information, analysts maintain a good personal relationship with management in order to obtain more information. On the other hand, management may take advantage of the concerns of analysts to use this to induce them.This allows analysts to provide biased research reports in favour of the company, which can cause analysts to predict behavior that conflicts with their role as a natural information provider.Therefore, it is meaningful to study the role of managers' interest inducement to analysts' optimistic bias.In addition, information transparency represents the public information of listed companies, sufficient public information can reduce analysts' dependence on private information, in which case, the positive effect of conflicts of interest on analysts' optimistic bias will be weakened.Based on the data of A share main Board listed companies of Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 2012-2014, this paper empirically tests whether the conflicts of interest faced by analysts in management have an impact on the optimistic bias of analysts' earnings forecast through the establishment of a model.Furthermore, the influence of information transparency on the relationship between them is discussed.The results show that: 1) conflicts of interest can lead to an optimistic bias in analysts' earnings forecasts.However, the impact of conflicts of interest of the best analysts on the optimism of their forecasts is weaker. If the listed companies have higher disclosure results or the quality of the performance forecast, the impact of conflicts of interest on the optimistic bias of the analysts will be significantly reduced.This indicates that the more transparent the information, the less positive the relationship will be.This paper draws lessons from the past research on the analyst profit forecast, and according to the characteristics of China's securities market, further excavates the influential factors of the analyst's optimistic deviation.This paper explores the optimistic bias behavior of analyst's profit forecast from two dimensions of conflict of interest and information transparency, and analyzes the reasons for the formation of this relationship in depth. The results of the study are universal to a certain extent.The research results of this paper not only supplement the theoretical research and related literature of analysts' optimistic tendency, but also help to improve the effectiveness of the securities market and the efficiency of resource allocation.The results of this paper provide effective suggestions on how to regulate and guide the behavior of analysts.
【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51

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