我国影子银行发展对经济增长的影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-04 20:16

本文选题：影子银行　切入点：经济增长　出处：《吉林财经大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：相比国内,国外有着发达的金融体系,完善的金融创新机制。然而金融危机的到来,让人们注意到金融创新过度的弊端,作为非传统的借贷体系,影子银行体系更是关注的焦点,更是被一些学者认为是金融危机的罪魁祸首。就国内的影子银行而言,虽然发展时间较短,创新程度也不高,但金融危机之后,在国内政策、国际环境等诸多因素作用下,其发展势头不容小觑。由于在影子银行定义方面还存在争议,所以对其发展所持的态度也各不相同。一方面认为,要鼓励创新,促进发展;另一方面认为,要加强监管,减小风险。由此可见,为了保证经济的增长,应该促进影子银行的发展还是抑制其发展,发展过程中产生的风险要如何规避,是一个亟待解决的问题。因此,本文利用理论分析方式,对影子银行从界定、特点、分类等方面进行分析,再利用实证分析,对影子银行的发展趋势、影响因素进行判断,以期将理论分析和实证分析结合,发现问题,为影子银行的合理发展提供相关建议。本文以2008年2月到2015年12月为时间段,选取了具有代表性的经济变量,利用中国人民银行公布的经济数据,将社会融资表中的个别变量相加,代表影子银行的发展规模,借鉴之前研究中运用的VAR模型,构造出影子银行与经济总量的计量模型,通过实证分析发现,影子银行与经济发展存在正相关的关系,并且影子银行的发展规模会伴随经济的发展呈现出周期性变化。在此基础上,分析进一步证明,影子银行的发展对CPI,M1都具有负向影响,但会随着时间的延续而逐渐减弱。而CPI,M1会对影子银行的发展产生正向影响。同时,通过模型预测了2016年第一季度的影子银行规模,大体与实际情况相吻合,说明了实证分析的科学性。进一步证明了影子银行与经济发展的关系,为下一步的建议对策打下了良好的基础。
[Abstract]:Compared with domestic, foreign has developed financial system, perfect financial innovation mechanism.However, with the arrival of the financial crisis, people notice the malpractice of excessive financial innovation. As a non-traditional lending system, the shadow banking system is the focus of attention, and is considered by some scholars to be the chief culprit of the financial crisis.As far as domestic shadow banking is concerned, although the development time is short and the degree of innovation is not high, after the financial crisis, under the influence of domestic policy, international environment and many other factors, its development momentum should not be underestimated.Since there is still controversy over the definition of shadow banking, attitudes towards its development vary.On the one hand, we should encourage innovation and promote development; on the other hand, we should strengthen regulation and reduce risks.Therefore, in order to ensure the growth of economy, it is an urgent problem to promote the development of shadow banking or to restrain its development, and how to avoid the risks in the process of development.Therefore, this paper makes use of theoretical analysis to analyze the definition, characteristics and classification of shadow banking, and then makes use of empirical analysis to judge the development trend and influencing factors of shadow banking.In order to combine theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, find out the problems, and provide relevant suggestions for the rational development of shadow banking.From February 2008 to December 2015, this paper selects the representative economic variables, using the economic data published by the people's Bank of China, adds the individual variables in the social financing table to represent the development scale of the shadow bank.Based on the VAR model used in previous studies, this paper constructs an econometric model of shadow banking and economic aggregate. Through empirical analysis, it is found that there is a positive correlation between shadow banking and economic development.And the development scale of shadow bank will take on cyclical change with the development of economy.On this basis, the analysis further proves that the development of shadow banking has a negative effect on CPI / M 1, but it will weaken gradually with the extension of time.CPI M 1 will have a positive impact on the development of shadow banking.At the same time, the size of shadow bank in the first quarter of 2016 is predicted by the model, which is consistent with the actual situation, which shows that the empirical analysis is scientific.It further proves the relationship between shadow banking and economic development, and lays a good foundation for further suggestions.
【学位授予单位】：吉林财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.3;F124.1

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