成长期上市公司财务危机预测——基于Kalman滤波与Logistic回归的实证研究

发布时间：2018-04-08 15:05

  本文选题：成长期　切入点：财务危机　出处：《财经论丛》2017年07期

【摘要】：本文将Kalman滤波智能算法与Logistic回归传统模型相结合,对成长期上市公司财务危机进行预测。结果表明:公司治理因素对上市公司是否发生财务危机具有显著影响;比较而言,Kalman滤波算法算得的专一性优于Logistic回归模型;临近被ST的T-1期模型Ⅰ、Ⅱ以及T-3期模型Ⅱ计算所得敏感性高于Kalman滤波算法敏感性结果,但T-3期模型Ⅰ及T-5期模型Ⅰ、Ⅱ敏感性皆低于Kalman滤波算法得到的敏感性。文章最后提出了成长期上市公司避免陷入财务困境的政策建议。
[Abstract]:In this paper, the Kalman filter intelligent algorithm is combined with the traditional Logistic regression model to predict the financial crisis of the growing listed companies.The results show that corporate governance has a significant impact on the financial crisis of listed companies; compared with the Logistic regression model, the algorithm is more specific than the Logistic regression model.The sensitivity of T-3 phase model 鈪，

本文编号：1722132