汇率调整、资本项目开放与跨境资本流动——新兴市场经验对我国的启示

发布时间：2018-04-08 18:29

本文选题：跨境资本流动　切入点：汇率　出处：《中央财经大学学报》2017年04期

【摘要】：笔者基于37个新兴市场国家数据,通过构建静态、动态面板模型,实证考察了跨境资本流动的内外部驱动因素。实证结果表明,资本项目开放在短期和长期资本流动中分别起到重要但不同的作用;外部国际货币政策调整、外部流动性条件始终是跨境资本流动的显著决定因素;新兴市场国家基本面仅在长期跨境资本流动中表现出显著的影响力;随着新兴市场国家汇率机制总体上趋向弹性,汇率调整在跨境资本流动中的作用并不重要。我国的实证结果与新兴市场的相关结论总体上是一致的,但也有部分差异,主要原因是我国在汇率与资本项目开放上的自身特点使得相关结论表现出一定的"中国特色"。从新兴市场跨境资本流动驱动因素的历史经验与实证结果来看,我国在汇率与资本项目制定安排上,未来应当构建更具弹性的人民币汇率形成机制,引导人民币汇率有序调整,对短期跨境资本项目开放更加审慎,由此形成保持国内货币政策独立性、人民币汇率渐进有序贬值与资本项目开放审慎的政策格局。
[Abstract]:Based on the data of 37 emerging market countries, the author empirically examines the internal and external drivers of cross-border capital flows through the construction of static and dynamic panel models.The empirical results show that the opening of capital account plays an important but different role in the short-term and long-term capital flows, the adjustment of external international monetary policy and the external liquidity conditions are the significant determinants of cross-border capital flows.The fundamentals of emerging market countries only show significant influence in long-term cross-border capital flows. As the exchange rate regime of emerging market countries generally tends to be flexible, the role of exchange rate adjustment in cross-border capital flows is not important.The empirical results of our country are consistent with the relevant conclusions of emerging markets in general, but there are also some differences. The main reason is that our own characteristics in the opening of exchange rate and capital account make the relevant conclusions show certain "Chinese characteristics".From the historical experience and empirical results of the driving factors of cross-border capital flows in emerging markets, we should construct a more flexible mechanism of RMB exchange rate formation and guide the orderly adjustment of RMB exchange rate in the future.The opening of short-term cross-border capital account is more prudent, which leads to the policy pattern of maintaining the independence of domestic monetary policy, the gradual and orderly depreciation of RMB exchange rate and the prudent opening of capital account.
【作者单位】：中央财经大学经济学院;中国石油规划总院;中国人民大学国际货币研究所;中国工商银行总行投资银行部研究中心;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金青年项目“资本项目开放、人民币汇率及其预期波动与资产市场价格稳定”(项目编号:71303254)
【分类号】：F832.6

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