谁的通胀预期影响了货币政策

发布时间：2018-04-13 08:34

本文选题：通胀预期 + 货币政策　；参考：《金融研究》2016年10期

【摘要】：本文建立含有通胀预期的前瞻性货币政策反应函数,基于2001年1季度至2014年4季度居民和专家两组通胀预期调研数据,研究中国人民银行决策信息集中是否包含通胀预期变量,以及谁的通胀预期更能影响货币政策。研究表明:(1)央行对居民预期和专家预期均做出显著反应,但对专家预期反应更强:平均而言,专家预期值提高1%,央行当季会降低货币供应量增长率0.4%,拆借利率则上浮0.1%;(2)在长期,央行遵循"逆预期"操作的相机抉择行为模式,表明预期变量是央行决策信息集的重要组成部分;(3)央行对某些机构的预测数据反应较强,其预测信息集可能与央行信息集重合度较高。
[Abstract]:In this paper, a forward-looking monetary policy response function with inflation expectations is established. Based on two groups of inflation expectation survey data from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2014, this paper studies whether the decision information set of the people's Bank of China contains inflation expectation variables.And whose inflation expectations are more likely to influence monetary policy.The study shows that the central bank has made a significant response to both residents' and experts' expectations, but it is more responsive to expert expectations: on average, the value of experts' expectations is increased by 1, the central bank will lower the growth rate of money supply by 0.4 percent in the current quarter, and the lending rate will rise by 0.1 percent) in the long run.The central bank follows the "anti-expectation" operation of the discretionary behavior pattern, indicating that the expected variables are an important part of the central bank's decision-making information set. (3) the central bank is more responsive to the prediction data of some institutions.The prediction information set may coincide with the central bank information set.
【作者单位】：中国人民大学/中国财政金融政策研究中心;
【基金】：中国金融四十人·青年论坛内部课题成果
【分类号】：F822.0;F822.5

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