不同阶段货币国际化的影响因素研究

发布时间：2018-04-15 12:14

本文选题：货币国际化 + 自举法　；参考：《国际金融研究》2016年09期

【摘要】：本文将18种货币分为已国际化、未完全国际化和待国际化货币组,分别对应货币国际化的后期、中期和初期,利用可行广义最小二乘估计(FGLS)考察货币国际化的影响因素是否因阶段而异,并借助基于自举法的面板格兰杰因果检验(Bootstrap Granger Causality Test)探究货币国际化是否反作用于经济影响因素。研究发现,惯性始终与国际化程度呈正相关,其他因素则表现出阶段性特征。初期,经济实力和币值稳定是货币国际化的主要助力,出口份额的扩大可能因为选择计价结算货币时对国际货币的偏好而阻碍自身的国际化;中期金融市场发展的重要性凸显;出口的扩大以及良好的经济预期是后期巩固国际货币地位的关键因素。货币国际化的福利效应在中期全面显现,后期对经济的推动作用仅体现在出口和金融市场发展方面。
[Abstract]:In this paper, 18 currencies are divided into internationalized, incomplete internationalized and uninternationalized currency groups, corresponding to the later, middle and early periods of currency internationalization, respectively.The feasible generalized least square estimation (FGLSs) is used to investigate whether the influencing factors of currency internationalization vary with different stages, and the bootstrap Granger Causality test based on bootstrap causality test based on bootstrap method is used to explore whether currency internationalization is counterproductive to economic influence factors.It is found that inertia is always positively correlated with the degree of internationalization, while other factors are characterized by stages.At the beginning, economic strength and currency stability are the main help of currency internationalization, and the expansion of export share may hinder its internationalization because of its preference for international currency in the choice of pricing and settlement currency, and the importance of the development of financial market in the medium term is prominent.The expansion of exports and good economic expectations were key factors in the consolidation of international monetary status in the later stages.The welfare effect of currency internationalization is fully manifested in the medium term, and only in export and financial market development in the latter stage.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院金融系;融通基金管理有限公司固定收益部;
【基金】：武汉大学自主科研项目(人文社会科学) “70后”团队项目“人民币国际化及其风险管理”的研究成果 “中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”资助
【分类号】：F831.6

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