三元悖论的“折中化”、多重汇率弹性与汇率灵活性——基于金融加速器效应的TVAR模型检验

发布时间：2018-04-15 19:18

本文选题：三元悖论 + 三元悖论的“折中化”　；参考：《财经科学》2017年07期

【摘要】：本文基于三元悖论"折中化"理论的视角,论证我国汇率灵活性的制度设计。根据近年来兴起的三元悖论的"折中化"理论,稳定的汇率、货币政策独立性和资本自由流动三个目标之间相互靠拢,传统"三元悖论"三个目标之间的相容性增强。本文从三个方面对三元悖论的"折中化"理论进行了论证。在此基础上,利用金融加速器效应模型,将汇率灵活性问题放在经济周期分析框架中,分别检验在三种汇率弹性条件下金融加速效应的差异。TVAR模型分析结果支持三元悖论的"折中化"理论。这表明,三元悖论的"折中化"理论适用于我国的现实情况,维持汇率的阶段性稳定不会削弱货币政策的独立性;人民币在固定汇率制度和完全浮动汇率制度之间可以找到一个阶段性的平衡点,不必在短期内实施完全浮动汇率制度;当前在汇率弹性增强有限的条件下,对资本流动进行一定管制是有必要的,管制的主要目的是为了引导资本的有序流动,特别是引导资本的有序流出。
[Abstract]:Based on the "compromise" theory of ternary paradox, this paper demonstrates the institutional design of exchange rate flexibility in China.According to the "compromise" theory of the ternary paradox which has arisen in recent years, the stable exchange rate, the independence of monetary policy and the free flow of capital come close to each other, and the compatibility among the three objectives of the traditional "ternary paradox" is enhanced.This paper demonstrates the "compromise" theory of the ternary paradox from three aspects.On this basis, using the financial accelerator effect model, the exchange rate flexibility problem is put in the economic cycle analysis framework.The results of TVAR model support the "compromise" theory of the ternary paradox.This shows that the "compromise" theory of the ternary paradox is applicable to the reality of our country, and maintaining the stage stability of the exchange rate will not weaken the independence of monetary policy.The RMB can find a phased balance between the fixed exchange rate system and the complete floating exchange rate system, and it is not necessary to implement the full floating exchange rate system in the short term. At present, under the condition of limited exchange rate flexibility,It is necessary to regulate the capital flow, the main purpose of which is to guide the orderly flow of capital, especially the orderly outflow of capital.
【作者单位】：广东财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金面上项目“金融加速器效应顺周期性的多维测度与逆周期调控政策研究”(71473049)和“基于消费视角的居民资产财富效应测度与调控政策研究”(71073030)的部分研究成果
【分类号】：F832.6

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