高阶结关系、贸易网络演化与金融危机

发布时间：2018-04-16 15:36

本文选题：高阶结关系 + 世界贸易网络　；参考：《财经研究》2017年10期

【摘要】：2008-2009年国际贸易的急剧衰退究竟是金融危机的结果,还是贸易体系在危机前就已积累的内在失衡?对这一问题的解答,有助于我们更为全面地了解金融危机的成因以及隐藏于贸易体系中的金融危机预警信号。文章利用贸易网络分析等方法,探讨了贸易网络演化对金融危机的早期预警作用,以及这一预警作用产生的根源,从而揭示了贸易网络演化与金融危机之间的深层关系。研究发现:(1)某些贸易网络结构的变化确实是金融危机的早期信号,而且这种变化也是影响危机的重要因素。(2)贸易网络演化对金融危机的预警作用与贸易收益不平衡有关,而失衡风险的不断累积最终会导向金融危机。(3)金融危机周期与重要贸易体之间的收益失衡程度存在对应关系,并且金融危机对具有劣势收益的贸易体更易造成冲击。上述结论说明,分析贸易网络结构的变化可以成为金融危机预警的新工具,且其变化所反映的贸易失衡也为预判国际贸易发展趋势以及优化贸易政策提供了参考。
[Abstract]:Was the sharp decline in international trade in 2008-2009 the result of the financial crisis or the inherent imbalances that had accumulated in the trading system prior to the crisis?The answer to this question will help us to understand the causes of the financial crisis and the early warning signals hidden in the trading system.By means of trade network analysis, this paper discusses the early warning effect of trade network evolution on financial crisis and the origin of this early warning effect, thus revealing the deep relationship between trade network evolution and financial crisis.The study found that some changes in trade network structure are indeed early signals of the financial crisis, and this change is also an important factor affecting the crisis.) the early warning effect of the evolution of trade networks on financial crises is related to the imbalance in trade returns.And the unbalance risk accumulation will lead to the financial crisis eventually.) there is a corresponding relationship between the financial crisis cycle and the income imbalance degree between the important trading body, and the financial crisis is more likely to impact the trading body with inferior income.The above conclusions show that the analysis of the change of trade network structure can be a new tool for financial crisis warning, and the trade imbalance reflected by the change can provide a reference for predicting the development trend of international trade and optimizing trade policy.
【作者单位】：安徽财经大学国际经济贸易学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目(71303001) 教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(15YJC790155)
【分类号】：F742;F831.59

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