2008年与2015年两次“股灾”的原因比较研究

发布时间：2018-04-17 16:05

本文选题：股灾 + 波动性　；参考：《河北经贸大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：健康的股票市场是国民经济稳定发展的重要保障,作为一个新兴的资本市场,我国股票市场的运行机制仍不成熟,股价一直处于异常波动之中,近十年来我国股市经历了2008年和2015年两次股灾,如此巨幅且频繁的波动不仅阻碍股市功能的正常发挥且对我国的经济发展产生不利影响,因此,我国股市的规范发展迫切要求我们对股票价格波动进行深入的研究。本文首先分析了两次股灾的主要表现和后果,股灾期间我国股市呈现波动幅度大、波动频率高和存在过度投机行为的特征,股灾的发生使股市总市值大幅缩水,金融风险系数加大,并对居民财富水平形成负面冲击,拖累了经济的发展;随后以近十年我国发生的两次股灾为研究对象,通过比较研究的方式系统的分析了引发两次股灾的原因,发现在宏观经济因素、货币政策因素和股市自身制度因素的共同作用下导致了股灾的爆发,其中股市制度性缺陷是股灾发生的重要的内生性因素,监管机构应该完善股市制度的建设为证券市场发展提供制度性保证。本文结合实证研究方式进一步检验前文的理论分析结果,通过VAR模型分别考察了两次股灾期间三方面影响因素对股指波动的贡献程度,得出了股市制度缺陷和外部国际环境变化是引起股灾的重要因素,宏观经济因素和货币政策因素影响贡献程度相对较小,与前文的理论分析较为一致,最后结合理论与实证分析的结果提出了关于稳定股市政策建议。
[Abstract]:A healthy stock market is an important guarantee for the steady development of the national economy. As a new capital market, the operating mechanism of our stock market is still immature, and the stock price has been in abnormal fluctuations.In recent ten years, the stock market of our country has experienced two share disasters in 2008 and 2015. Such a large and frequent fluctuation not only hinders the normal development of the stock market function, but also has a negative impact on the economic development of our country.The normative development of stock market in our country requires us to deeply study the fluctuation of stock price.This paper first analyzes the main performance and consequences of the two stock disasters. During the period of the crash, the stock market in our country showed the characteristics of large volatility, high frequency of fluctuation and excessive speculation. The occurrence of the crash caused the total market value of the stock market to shrink significantly.The increase of financial risk coefficient and the negative impact on the wealth level of the residents have slowed down the development of the economy. Subsequently, the two stock market disasters that occurred in China in the past decade were taken as the research object.By means of comparative study, this paper systematically analyzes the causes of the two share disasters, and finds that the joint action of macroeconomic factors, monetary policy factors and stock market institutional factors led to the outbreak of the stock market disaster.The institutional defect of stock market is an important endogenous factor in the occurrence of stock disaster, and the regulatory body should perfect the construction of stock market system to provide institutional guarantee for the development of securities market.Combined with the empirical research method to further test the previous theoretical analysis results, through the VAR model, we investigate the contribution of three factors to the stock index volatility during the two stock disasters.It is concluded that the defects of the stock market system and the changes of the external international environment are the important factors causing the stock market disaster, and the contribution of macroeconomic factors and monetary policy factors is relatively small, which is consistent with the previous theoretical analysis.Finally, some suggestions on stabilizing stock market are put forward based on the results of theoretical and empirical analysis.
【学位授予单位】：河北经贸大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51

【相似文献】