我国货币政策变化对短期国际资本流动的影响

发布时间：2018-04-17 23:14

本文选题：货币政策 + 国际资本流动　；参考：《国际商务(对外经济贸易大学学报)》2016年01期

【摘要】：本文以2005年7月~2014年6月的月度数据为样本,建立VAR模型,运用脉冲响应函数,实证分析了货币政策变化对短期国际资本流动的影响。结果发现,货币供给的增加会导致国际资本在短期流出,在中长期则流入。具体而言,在短期内,货币供给的增加降低了人民币升值预期和国内利率,在两者共同作用下,国际资本流出;在中长期内,货币供给的增加提高了人民币升值预期,而国内利率仍然降低,但由于汇率预期对资本流动的影响比国内利率的影响更强烈,因此国际资本总体上呈现为净流入。因此,央行制定和实施货币政策应考虑其对短期国际资本流动的影响,同时,加快人民币汇率市场化、利率市场化改革,并加强对短期资本流动的监测与管理。
[Abstract]:Based on the monthly data from July 2005 to June 2014, VAR model is established and the impact of monetary policy changes on short-term international capital flows is analyzed empirically by using impulse response function.It is found that the increase in the money supply will lead to the outflow of international capital in the short term and the inflow in the medium and long term.Specifically, in the short term, the increase in the money supply has lowered the expectations of RMB appreciation and domestic interest rates, under the combined action of both, international capital outflows; in the medium and long term, the increase in the money supply has raised the expectation of RMB appreciation.While the domestic interest rate is still lower, the impact of exchange rate expectation on capital flows is stronger than that of domestic interest rate, so the overall international capital flows show a net inflow.Therefore, the central bank should consider the impact of monetary policy on short-term international capital flow, accelerate the reform of RMB exchange rate marketization and interest rate marketization, and strengthen the monitoring and management of short-term capital flow.
【作者单位】：南京师范大学商学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“应对军事冲突的中国外汇储备风险防控研究”(13BJY171)的阶段性研究成果
【分类号】：F832.6;F822.0

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