中国人口老龄化对金融资产价格影响研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 17:16

本文选题：人口老龄化 + 金融资产价格　；参考：《人口研究》2017年05期

【摘要】：文章对国内外相关文献进行系统的回顾,建立了人口老龄化对金融资产价格作用的机理和路径。利用中国1990~2015年历史数据建立人口老龄化和金融资产价格之间关系的向量自回归(Vector Autoregression,VAR)模型,实证分析结果表明人口老龄化对金融资产价格有稳定的负向影响。从预测角度,脉冲分析结果进一步证实,如果对人口老龄化程度添加1个额外的正向冲击,将对金融资产价格产生长期的负向影响。文章认为中国人口老龄化在未来不会导致金融资产价格崩溃,但金融资产回报率的下降需要引起警惕,因为未来退休人口将更多地依赖个人储蓄及资产回报,而非传统的退休金。文章对中国未来金融资产价格的下降趋势提出预警,提出政府应该前瞻性地从人口和金融两方面加强宏观管理,做出政策选择。
[Abstract]:Based on a systematic review of relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper establishes the mechanism and path of the effect of population aging on the price of financial assets. Based on the historical data of China from 1990 to 2015, a vector autoregressive vector autoregressive (VARR) model for the relationship between population aging and financial asset prices is established. The empirical results show that population aging has a stable and negative impact on financial asset prices. From the perspective of prediction, the results of pulse analysis further confirm that if we add an additional positive shock to the degree of population aging, it will have a long-term negative impact on the price of financial assets. The article argues that China's aging population will not lead to a collapse in financial asset prices in the future, but a decline in the return on financial assets requires caution, as future retirees will rely more on personal savings and return on assets. Instead of a traditional pension. This paper gives an early warning of the downward trend of China's financial asset prices in the future, and suggests that the government should strengthen macro management and make policy choices from both the population and financial aspects.
【作者单位】：首都经济贸易大学劳动经济学院;
【基金】：首都经济贸易大学重大科研项目与成果培育计划“人口变动对资产价格的长期影响及预警机制研究”资助
【分类号】：C924.24;F832

【相似文献】