汇率变化如何影响中国对美国一般贸易品出口技术结构

发布时间：2018-04-24 04:04

本文选题：汇率变化 + 中国对美出口　；参考：《世界经济》2017年11期

【摘要】：本文基于中国对美国一般贸易品出口技术结构变化的统计分析,使用Tobit模型探究2003-2013年产品实际汇率变化对其影响。研究表明:(1)2007年前加工贸易夸大了中国对美国制造品出口技术程度,2007年后中国对美国一般贸易品出口技术结构有了明显提升,但仍需警惕"统计幻觉"。(2)中国对美国一般贸易品各技术类别产品出口份额受产品实际汇率的影响有着明显的差异,出口产品实际汇率升值提高了中国对美国一般贸易高技术产品出口份额。(3)中美宏观层面实际汇率升值提升了中国对美国一般贸易品出口技术结构,次贷危机后实际汇率波动增大不利于中国对美出口技术结构的提升。据此,需要细化分解,才能揭示出产品实际汇率变化与中国出口技术结构变化的真实关系。借助产品实际汇率升值的结构调整效应,中国应着力于创新来拉伸一般贸易价值链,以期促进经济增长。
[Abstract]:Based on the statistical analysis of China's changes in the technical structure of American general trade exports, this paper uses Tobit model to explore the effect of the change of real exchange rate of products on it from 2003 to 2013. Research shows that processing trade exaggerates the technological level of China's export of manufactured goods to the United States before 2007. After 2007, the technical structure of China's general trade exports to the United States has significantly improved. But there is still a need to be wary of "statistical hallucinations." (2) China's share of exports to the United States for various technical categories of general trade is significantly affected by the real exchange rate of the products. The appreciation of the real exchange rate of export products has increased China's share of exports of high-tech products to the United States in general trade) at the macro level, the appreciation of the real exchange rate between China and the United States has enhanced the technical structure of China's exports of general trade products to the United States. The increase of real exchange rate fluctuation after the subprime mortgage crisis is not conducive to the upgrading of the technology structure of China's exports to the United States. Therefore, the real relationship between the change of real exchange rate of products and the change of Chinese export technology structure needs to be refined and decomposed. With the help of the structural adjustment effect of product real exchange rate appreciation, China should focus on innovation to stretch the general trade value chain in order to promote economic growth.
【作者单位】：复旦大学世界经济研究所;复旦大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金重点项目(15AZD058) 教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大项目《行业生产网络下创新保护与中国企业外贸竞争力提升研究》国家自然科学基金项目(71573171)的资助
【分类号】：F752.62;F832.6

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