中国银行业垄断福利损失的估计研究

发布时间：2018-04-26 10:34

本文选题：银行业 + 垄断　；参考：《湘潭大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：如今我国进入经济新常态时期,经济增长速度放缓,我国银行业也进入自身发展的新常态,处于重要的战略机遇期。2013年十八届三中全会提出“使市场在资源配置中起决定性作用”。而我国银行业改革始终没有突破国有产权制度的框架,这使得我国银行业资源配置的效率极低,经济效益不高。因此使我国经济从旧有的要素投入模式向效率驱动模式转换,优化金融领域资源配置,将有效提高我国社会福利水平,对我国经济增长具有重要的推动作用。本文以垄断对社会福利损失的影响的基本理论为基础,通过两个指标测度我国银行业的垄断程度:市场集中率CRn、赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数,并实证测度了我国银行业的垄断程度。其次,利用2007-2015年14家全国性商业银行年报数据,通过SFA模型对这14家全国性商业银行的X-效率水平进行测算,再次,推算出垄断福利损失下限估计方法,并通过分析了各个全国性商业银行每年的X-非效率损失程度,构建了由垄断导致的社会福利损失上限估计方法,以及通过莱本斯坦方法得出的间接福利损失估计方法。最后利用我国14家全国性商业银行2007—2015年的数据,实证测量了我国银行业垄断导致的直接福利损失上下限和间接福利损失,并对实证结果进行了分析。通过实证分析得出研究结论如下:2007-2015年我国银行业在存款、贷款、资产和负债方面都存在垄断势力,但垄断程度呈现逐年下降趋势,利用市场集中率CRn、赫芬达尔—赫希曼指数两种指标进行测度均可得出:我国银行业属于中下集中寡占型行业。同时,在2007—2015年间的每一年,每个全国性商业银行由垄断导致的直接福利损失都为正数,我国银行业由垄断势力导致的直接福利损失下限占GDP比例达0.4%--0.6%,直接福利损失上限占GDP比重约0.7%,表明我国银行业垄断导致的直接福利损失十分显著;国有商业银行垄断导致的直接福利损失上下限占GDP的百分比都高于股份制银行。同时,由于商业银行向下游行业贷款,从而导致下游行业生产成本上升,最终由我国银行业垄断导致的2008年7个行业的间接福利损失也占GDP百分比的2%以上,是直接福利损失的3倍,对社会福利造成的负面效应尤为明显。在研究结论的基础上,本文提出以下4个政策建议:第一,放宽市场准入,逐步引入竞争。第二,防控贷款风险,优化贷款结构。第三,深化利率市场化改革,优化利率形成机制。第四,完善银行业协会,引导银行有序发展。
[Abstract]:Now our country enters the new normal period of economy, the speed of economic growth slows down, the banking industry of our country has also entered the new normal of its own development. In the important strategic opportunity period of.2013 in the third Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee, it put forward "make the market play a decisive role in the allocation of resources". The efficiency of our country's banking resources allocation is very low and the economic benefit is not high. Therefore, the transformation of our country's economy from the old factor input mode to the efficiency driven model and the optimization of the allocation of resources in the financial field will effectively improve the social welfare level of our country, and have an important impetus to the growth of our country's economy. On the basis of the basic theory of the impact of welfare loss, we measure the monopoly degree of China's banking industry by two indexes: the market concentration rate CRn, the herfen Dahl Seaman index, and the empirical measure of the degree of monopoly in China's banking industry. Secondly, using the data of the annual reports of 14 national commercial banks in 2007-2015 years and the SFA model to these nationals. The X- efficiency level of commercial banks is calculated. Again, the estimation method of the lower limit of the monopoly welfare loss is calculated. By analyzing the annual X- inefficiency loss degree of each national commercial bank, the upper limit estimation method of social welfare loss caused by monopoly is constructed, and the indirect welfare loss estimated by the lainstein method is estimated. In the end, using the data of 14 national commercial banks in China from 2007 to 2015, the paper empirically measured the upper and lower losses of direct welfare loss and indirect welfare loss caused by China's banking monopoly, and analyzed the empirical results. The conclusions are as follows: the banking industry in China is in deposits, loans and assets in 2007-2015 years. There are monopolies in both debt and debt, but the degree of monopoly is declining year by year. Using the market concentration rate CRn and the two indexes of the herfen Dahl Seaman index, we can conclude that China's banking industry belongs to the middle and lower centralized oligopoly industry. At the same time, every national commercial bank is monopolized in every year from 2007 to 2015. The direct welfare loss caused by the direct welfare loss in China's banking industry is GDP 0.4%--0.6%, the upper limit of direct welfare loss accounts for about 0.7% of GDP, which indicates that the direct welfare loss caused by the monopoly of China's banking industry is very significant; the direct welfare losses caused by the monopoly of state-owned commercial banks are limited to the upper and lower limits. The percentage of GDP is higher than that of joint-stock banks. At the same time, owing to the commercial banks' lending to the downstream industry, the cost of production in the downstream industry is rising. The indirect welfare loss of the 7 industries in 2008, resulting from the monopoly of China's banking industry, is also more than 2% of the percentage of GDP, which is 3 times the loss of direct welfare and the negative effect on social welfare. The effect is particularly obvious. On the basis of the research conclusions, the following 4 policy suggestions are put forward: first, relax market access, gradually introduce competition. Second, prevent and control loan risks, optimize the loan structure. Third, deepen the reform of interest rate marketization, optimize the mechanism of interest rate formation. Fourth, perfect the banking association and guide the orderly development of the bank.

【学位授予单位】：湘潭大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.3

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