量化宽松后的日本利率政策效应分析:从零利率到负利率

发布时间：2018-04-29 18:07

本文选题：零利率约束 + 负名义利率　；参考：《现代经济探讨》2017年06期

【摘要】：为了尽快实现2%的核心通胀目标,2016年1月29日日本央行宣布实行负利率。负利率政策打破零下限约束,量化宽松的政策逐步升级,不断加强。然而,短期来看,这一举措并未达到预期效果,作为超级宽松的货币政策,负利率政策到底是打破零利率约束的一项创新之举,还是黔驴技穷、陷入了深度流动性陷阱的怪圈,货币政策是否还存在宽松空间?本文通过构建理论框架,分析日本零利率及负利率的整体政策效应,建立VAR模型进行实证研究,结果表明日本的货币政策没有实现抑制通缩和日元贬值的预期目标,结合日本的经验教训,对中国的货币政策发展提供建议,认为根本上必须从结构性问题和技术层面改善经济发展水平。
[Abstract]:In an effort to reach the 2 percent core inflation target as soon as possible, the Bank of Japan announced a negative interest rate on January 29, 2016. The negative interest rate policy breaks the zero lower bound, the quantitative easing policy upgrades step by step, unceasingly strengthens. However, in the short run, this measure has not achieved the expected results. As a super loose monetary policy, is the negative interest rate policy an innovation to break the constraint of zero interest rates, or is it a strange circle of deep liquidity traps? Is there room for easing in monetary policy? By constructing a theoretical framework, this paper analyzes the overall policy effects of zero and negative interest rates in Japan, and establishes a VAR model for empirical research. The results show that Japan's monetary policy has not achieved the expected goal of curbing deflation and the depreciation of the yen. Based on the experiences and lessons of Japan, this paper gives some advice on the development of China's monetary policy, and holds that it is essential to improve the level of economic development in terms of structural problems and technical aspects.
【作者单位】：安徽财经大学金融学院;
【基金】：“货币政策与金融稳定:基于金融稳定状况指数的分析”(项目编号:SK2016SD04) 安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金项目“量化宽松后的日本利率政策效应分析:从零利率到负利率”(项目编号:ACYC2016067)
【分类号】：F823.13

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