互联网金融对货币政策资产价格传导机制影响的研究

发布时间：2018-05-01 21:38

本文选题：互联网金融 + 货币政策资产价格传导机制　；参考：《南京师范大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：以互联网为代表的现代信息技术的发展给金融业带来了深刻的影响。随着互联网技术与金融服务融合而生的“互联网金融”,不仅提高了信息透明度,降低了交易成本,同时也在一定程度上影响了宏观经济。2013年以来,互联网金融出现快速成长,P2P网贷、第三方支付、众筹等业务的蓬勃发展使整个行业呈现出多元化、差异化的发展特征。互联网金融以其交易迅捷、多场景体验的优势冲击了传统金融业,改变了金融体系的状态,体系的细微变化将会影响到货币政策传导机制,进而影响政策调控实体经济的效果。本文以互联网金融对中国货币政策资产价格传导机制的影响为主题展开的理论分析与实证研究具有一定理论与实践意义。本文在梳理了国内外相关文献的基础上,对互联网金融规模、种类、监管的发展及货币政策资产价格导机制的变迁历程进行总结归纳,发现2013年为我国互联网金融开始快速发展的突变点,以托宾Q理论、生命周期理论为基础结合我国国情分别展开理论分析与实证检验,最后得出结论并给出建议。通过理论分析发现,互联网金融能够增强流动性效应与资产价格效应,使货币政策传导至资产价格环节传导更加有效。结合理论分析结果进行实证分析探讨以下两个问题:2013年前后两个互联网金融不同发展程度时期货币需求的资产价格弹性是否发生变化;如果发生变化,互联网金融是如何影响货币政策传导至资产价格环节。针对问题一,本文采用2008至2013年与2013至2016年两个时期的货币变动量、资产价格指数等变量的月度数据,分别构建VAR模,发现在不同的互联网金融发展时期货币政策传导至资产价格环节确实存在不同,2013后资产价格对于货币供给量的敏感度有所提升。针对问题二,基于2014至2016年期间货币增长率、互联网金融发展指数增长率、资产价格指数增长率的月度数据构建VAR模型,通过格兰杰因果检验、协整关系检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析后发现,货币供应量的变动将对互联网金融发展指数产生正向的影响,互联网金融指数则会正向影响资产价格指数。互联网金融在货币政策传导至资产价格环节中发挥了正向的作用,加强了货币政策传导至资产价格这一环节的联动性。因此,我国政府需充分考虑互联网金融对资产价格传导机制的影响,及时选择更为有效中介目标,规范发展资本市场,健全互联网金融风险管理体制培养专业人才,构建有效的横向合作监管体系,借助互联网金融推进利率市场化进程带动普惠金融发展,让货币政策在调控实体经济方面发挥应有的作用。
[Abstract]:The development of modern information technology, represented by the Internet, has brought profound influence to the financial industry. Internet finance, created by the convergence of Internet technology and financial services, has not only increased information transparency and reduced transaction costs, but has also had some impact on the macro economy since 2013. With the rapid development of Internet finance, such as P2P network loan, third-party payment, crowdfunding and so on, the whole industry presents the characteristics of diversification and differentiation. Internet finance impacts the traditional financial industry and changes the state of the financial system with its advantage of quick transaction and multi-scene experience. The slight change of the system will affect the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and then affect the effect of the real economy. The theoretical analysis and empirical research on the influence of Internet finance on the asset price transmission mechanism of monetary policy in China are of theoretical and practical significance. On the basis of combing the relevant literature at home and abroad, this paper sums up and sums up the development of Internet financial scale, types, supervision and the evolution of monetary policy asset price guidance mechanism. It is found that 2013 is the point of rapid development of Internet finance in China. Based on Tobin Q theory, life cycle theory and China's national conditions, theoretical analysis and empirical test are carried out respectively. Finally, conclusions are drawn and suggestions are given. Through theoretical analysis, it is found that Internet finance can enhance the liquidity effect and asset price effect, and make the transmission of monetary policy to asset price link more effective. Combining the results of theoretical analysis with empirical analysis, this paper discusses the following two issues: whether the elasticity of asset prices of monetary demand changes in two periods of different development levels of Internet finance before and after 2013; if changes occur, Internet finance is how to influence monetary policy transmission to asset price link. To solve the first problem, this paper uses the monthly data of currency change, asset price index and other variables from 2008 to 2013 and 2013 to 2016 to construct the VAR model, respectively. It is found that the sensitivity of asset price to money supply has been improved after 2013 when monetary policy is transmitted to asset price in different Internet financial development period. Secondly, based on the monthly data of monetary growth rate, Internet financial development index growth rate and asset price index growth rate between 2014 and 2016, the VAR model is constructed, which is based on Granger causality test and cointegration test. The impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis show that the change of money supply will have a positive impact on the Internet financial development index, while the Internet financial index will positively affect the asset price index. Internet finance plays a positive role in the transmission of monetary policy to asset price, and strengthens the linkage between monetary policy transmission and asset price. Therefore, our government should fully consider the influence of Internet finance on asset price transmission mechanism, select more effective intermediary target in time, standardize the development of capital market, and perfect Internet financial risk management system to train professionals. To construct an effective horizontal cooperative supervision system, to promote the interest rate marketization process with the help of Internet finance to promote the development of inclusive finance, and to make monetary policy play its due role in regulating and controlling the real economy.
【学位授予单位】：南京师范大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F724.6;F832;F822.0

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