汇率波动对中国出口增加值的影响分析

发布时间：2018-05-01 22:35

本文选题：汇率波动 + 加工贸易　；参考：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年05期

【摘要】：在全球价值链迅速发展和人民币汇率改革不断推进的背景下,研究汇率波动对出口中国内增加值的影响具有重要的现实意义.本文首先利用计量经济模型估计汇率波动对出口和部门进口的影响,进而利用反映加工贸易的非竞争型投入产出模型测算出口中国内增加值所受的影响.结果表明,汇率波动对出口增加值的影响比对出口额的影响更大,除了影响出口中的直接增加值之外,汇率波动还会影响进口品和国内品之间的替代,进而影响国内品中间投入结构和出口中的间接增加值.分贸易方式来看,汇率波动对一般贸易出口的影响更大,加工贸易在有限程度上缓和了汇率波动对总出口增加值的影响.对部门出口增加值而言,进口需求价格弹性较大的部门所受影响较大,加工出口比重高的部门所受影响较小.
[Abstract]:Under the background of the rapid development of global value chain and the continuous promotion of RMB exchange rate reform, it is of great practical significance to study the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on the value added of China's exports. This paper first estimates the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on exports and sector imports by using econometric models, and then uses the non-competitive input-output model, which reflects processing trade, to estimate the impact on the value added of exports in China. The results show that the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the value added of exports is greater than that on exports. In addition to the direct value added in exports, exchange rate fluctuations also affect the substitution between imports and domestic goods. Then it affects the structure of domestic intermediate input and the indirect value added in export. From the point of view of trade mode, exchange rate fluctuation has a greater impact on general trade exports, and processing trade to a limited extent mitigates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on total export value added. For the value added of export, the sectors with higher price elasticity of import demand are affected more, while those with high proportion of processing exports are affected less.
【作者单位】：中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院;中国科学院大学;格罗宁根大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金(71125005) 商务部项目(TAHP-2015-ZB-365)~~
【分类号】：F752.62;F832.6

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