我国房地产金融风险实证研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 10:30

本文选题：房地产 + 金融风险　；参考：《厦门大学》2008年硕士论文

【摘要】： 近年来,房地产业、尤其是住房产业已经成为我国国民经济新的增长点,房地产业作为国民经济的支柱产业,在国家经济发展中具有举足轻重的作用,是国家经济发展的晴雨表;房地产业的快速发展极大地促进了我国经济发展,同时也带动了耐用消费品、装潢材料等的消费,从而拉动整个消费市场的活跃,乃至GDP的增长,随着房地产市场的不断发展以及房价的一路飙升,与房地产业密切相关的房地产贷款也成为人们关注的焦点。2007年爆发的美国“次级房贷”引起了全球金融市场的混乱,淋漓尽致地展现了“现代金融风险”的新变化,也向我们敲响了关注金融风险的警钟;同时提醒我们,越是在市场繁荣时期,越应该加强风险控制和市场监管,要建立房地产价格监控制度和房地产市场泡沫预警制度,采取多种措施稳定市场,保持房地产市场有序健康发展。此时来研究房地产金融风险具有非同一般的意义:可以从一定程度上减少金融风险或者降低金融风险的危害;同时,对房地产金融行业的研究又可以为政府的宏观管理提供依据。本文在通过对国内外相关文献研究的基础上,对房地产金融、房地产金融风险成因分析及VaR理论做了相关介绍,在了解这些基础知识的基础上,根据上海市1993——2007年GDP、居民消费价格指数、金融业增加值、建筑业增加值、商品房销售价格、房地产开发投资额、房地产业增加值及国内贷款8个指标进行分析研究,根据研究结果进行蒙特卡洛模拟,求出房地产开发商所面临的VaR值,据此来分析房地产市场发展趋势,同时本文还研究了房地产金融风险中另一个重要风险,即对房地产抵押贷款信用风险进行实证分析,为银行在个人住房贷款方面提供一定的理论依据和技术支持,最后在总结全文的基础上给出了我国房地产金融风险防范的一些具体措施,以期达到更好的防范房地产金融风险的目的。本文的创新点主要在于过去用蒙特卡洛方法分析VaR时,是用历史数据的均值和标准差进行模拟,由于近年来中国经济发展过于迅速,用均值分析会得出与市场发展方向不太一致的过于悲观的结果,我们采用各指标2008年的预测值代替历史数据的均值,用残差标准差代替原来的标准差,进行蒙特卡洛模拟;同时联系目前国家紧的货币政策,对国内贷款做了压力试验,得出国内贷款的不利变动会给房地产开发商带来很大风险的结论,这可以使房地产开发商及早认识到资金问题并进行多元化筹资。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the real estate industry, especially the housing industry, has become the new growth point of our national economy. As the pillar industry of the national economy, the real estate industry plays an important role in the national economic development. It is a barometer of national economic development. The rapid development of the real estate industry has greatly promoted the economic development of our country. At the same time, it has also led to the consumption of consumer durables and upholstery materials, thus stimulating the active consumer market and even the growth of GDP. With the continuous development of the real estate market and the soaring housing prices, real estate loans closely related to the real estate industry have also become the focus of attention. The outbreak of 2007 in the United States "subprime mortgage" caused the global financial market chaos, Vividly and vividly, the new changes in "modern financial risks" have sounded a wake-up call for us to pay close attention to financial risks. At the same time, we are reminded that the more prosperous the market, the more we should strengthen risk control and market regulation. It is necessary to establish a real estate price monitoring system and a real estate market bubble warning system, take various measures to stabilize the market and maintain the orderly and healthy development of the real estate market. It is of great significance to study the financial risk of real estate at this time: it can reduce the financial risk or the harm of the financial risk to a certain extent; at the same time, The research on the real estate finance industry can provide the basis for the macro-management of the government. Based on the research of domestic and foreign literature, this paper introduces the causes of real estate finance, real estate financial risk and VaR theory, and based on the understanding of these basic knowledge, According to Shanghai's GDP from 1993 to 2007, consumer price index, added value of financial industry, added value of construction industry, sale price of commercial housing, investment of real estate development, added value of real estate industry and domestic loan were analyzed and studied. Based on the results of Monte Carlo simulation, the VaR value of real estate developers is calculated, and the trend of real estate market development is analyzed. At the same time, another important risk in real estate financial risk is also studied in this paper. That is, real estate mortgage credit risk empirical analysis, for the bank in personal housing loans to provide a certain theoretical basis and technical support, Finally, on the basis of summing up the full text, this paper gives some concrete measures to prevent the real estate financial risks in our country, in order to achieve the purpose of better preventing the real estate financial risks. The main innovation of this paper is that in the past, when using Monte Carlo method to analyze VaR, we used the mean and standard deviation of historical data to simulate it. Because of the rapid development of Chinese economy in recent years, By means analysis, we can get the pessimistic result which is not consistent with the market development direction. We use the forecast value of each index in 2008 to replace the mean of historical data, and replace the original standard deviation with the standard deviation of residual error, and carry out Monte Carlo simulation. At the same time, in the light of the tight monetary policy of the country at present, a pressure experiment has been made on domestic loans, and the conclusion is that adverse changes in domestic loans will bring great risks to real estate developers. This allows real estate developers to recognize the funding problem early and diversify financing.
【学位授予单位】：厦门大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2008
【分类号】：F832.2;F293.3;F224

【引证文献】