金融冲击、货币政策规则的选择与中国经济波动

发布时间：2018-05-07 04:24

本文选题：金融冲击 + 金融摩擦　；参考：《系统工程理论与实践》2017年02期

【摘要】：综合运用贝叶斯估计、二阶矩比较、脉冲响应、方差分解、历史分解和反事实仿真等方法进行研究后发现:在引入了金融摩擦和金融冲击的情况下,1)利率规则造成的福利损失明显大于数量规则.2)就应对负向金融冲击的效果而言,数量规则的效果优于利率规则的效果.3)金融冲击是驱动我国经济周期波动的最重要力量,金融冲击在利率规则和数量规则下对我国产出波动的解释度分别为40.54%和38.95%.4)货币政策规则的选择对我国宏观经济的总体运行具有很大影响,且对通货膨胀的影响要大于对产出的影响.5)在我国利率尚未完全市场化且存在金融冲击的情况下,我国央行应更多地采用货币政策数量规则调控经济.
[Abstract]:Bayesian estimation, second moment comparison, impulse response, variance decomposition, In the case of financial friction and financial shock, it is found that the welfare loss caused by interest rate rules is obviously greater than that caused by quantitative rule. 2) in terms of the effect of dealing with negative financial shocks, the historical decomposition and counterfactual simulation methods have been studied. The effect of quantitative rules is better than that of interest rate rules. 3) Financial shocks are the most important force driving China's economic cycle fluctuations. Under the interest rate rule and the quantity rule, the degree of explanation of financial shock to the fluctuation of China's output is 40.54% and 38.95.4 respectively) the choice of monetary policy rules has great influence on the overall operation of China's macro-economy. And the impact on inflation is greater than that on output. 5) when the interest rate in China is not completely market-oriented and there is a financial shock, the central bank should adopt more quantitative rules of monetary policy to regulate the economy.
【作者单位】：华侨大学经济与金融学院;上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院;
【基金】：福建省社会科学规划一般项目“金融冲击的宏观经济效应、传导机制及中国货币政策规则的选择研究”(FJ2016B226) 国家自然科学基金(71320107002,71201100) 华侨大学高层次人才科研启动费项目(16SKBS205)~~
【分类号】：F124.8;F822.0;F832

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